While 'soft' survey data has been disappointing, hard macro data has been resilient and Industrial Production ended 2025 on a bright note with a 0.4% MoM surge in December (considerably better than the +0.1% MoM expected) complementing November's 0.4% MoM rise. This left industrial production up 2% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

The index for utilities increased 2.6 percent in December, supported by a rise of 12.0 percent in the index for natural gas...

US Manufacturing output also rose more than expected, +0.2% MoM vs -0.1% MoM exp.

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity Utilization also rebounded in December, seemingly breaking the downtrend...

Source: Bloomberg

This 'positive' macro news seems at odds to the soft survey data that suggests the end of the world.

Finally, rate-cut expectations are lower still following this 'good' news.

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