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Tl;dr: Traders were stuck between two reflexive themes again this week characterized by Hormuz Hell-to-Hope and Hyperscaler CapEx-to-Cost dilemmas as we detailed earlier. While the week was turbulent (oil up, yields up, dollar up, stocks down, bitcoin down) - and new tariff tensions were shrugged off - today started on an optimistic note from Pakistani mediators (puling oil lower, yields lower, and stocks higher) but it didn't last as hyperscaler credit was routed. Next week brings an event-risk-pocalypse (and vol markets knows it)
A quiet macro week crescendo'd with traders facing questions about AI CapEx sustainability (a bet that revenue inflects before spending peaks) and how much worse the MidEast gets before Trump folds...all very much setting the scene for more chaos next week...