By Seth Carpenter, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley

This entire year has been marked with global uncertainty. The discussions of a trade war have shifted again to discussions of a military war. I find it impossible to ignore the enormous human cost involved, but markets eventually turn dispassionate and ask about the economic consequences. One place to start is the price of Brent oil going from lows of about $60/bbl in early May to almost $80/bbl now.