The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle

Yesterday Goldman raised numerous eyebrows across Wall Street with a new report in which it stated that "consensus 2027 hyperscaler capex estimates are too conservative." According to Goldman's Ryan Hammond, analyst estimates imply hyperscaler capex will equal $920 billion in 2027, representing a sharp deceleration in growth from 84% in 2026 to 22% in 2027. Goldman disagrees, and estimates that if incremental investment reaches 2-3% of GDP, similar to the build-out of railroads and autos, hyperscaler capex would reach roughly $1.1 trillion in 2027 (45% growth). But that's just the start: in a more extreme upside scenario, Goldman calculates that between hyperscaler cash flow generation and investment grade credit market capacity, there is room for potentially $1.4 trillion in capex (89% growth).
AI in the Public Debt Markets