Trump is sliding into a forever war with Iran
They may never have been officially articulated, but at the start of the war, the objectives of America and Israel were obvious. The greatest prize, of course, was regime change.
Over five bitter decades, the zombie leadership of Tehran had shown itself immune to appeasement, coercion, bargaining and deterrence. When those fanatics chanted death to America, or Israel, or England, they meant it. In the long run, it was either them or us.
Below this was a cascade of medium-term goals: degrading the regime's missile arsenal and regional proxies, both patiently developed by the late Ali Khamenei as umbrellas for incubating atomic bombs, dismantling Iran's general military capabilities, decapitating its high command and, most importantly, destroying its nuclear programme.
Almost five months on, even after signing a memorandum of understanding that surrendered all these objectives and threw in wholesale sanctions relief, Washington finds itself locked in an undignified death clinch with the regime, which maintains a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. All objectives have collapsed into that one, and it wasn't even on the list.
This week, American warplanes smashed the roads, bridges and railway tracks around Bandar Abbas, a coastal city of nearly 500,000 paired with a naval base. As roughly half the country's trade passes through its port, millions will likely be plunged into destitution. The escalation appeared to be an attempt to prevent Iranian forces from resupplying, tamping down their attacks on Hormuz.
Whether the military advantage justified the civilian suffering – a key measure of legality under the laws of armed conflict – is questionable at best. Certainly, the fact that the last leader to bomb that same infrastructure was Saddam Hussein in the 1980s was not a good look for Donald Trump.
The whole thing smacked of desperation. The change of Washington's fortunes is stark. What began as a devastating assault by the most fearsome military machine in human history has devolved into an inexorable war of attrition against a far weaker yet more cunning foe, against the backdrop of comically mishandled negotiations.
For months, the regime has been groaning under the weight of assassinations, surgical strikes, economic crisis and wave upon wave of tactical military defeats. With its monopoly on domestic violence intact, however, it has resisted pressure internally; and with its domination of Hormuz, it tweaks Trump's nose while holding a gun to the head of the global economy.
On the American side, meanwhile, the pain is also growing. Not only are stockpiles of missile interceptors running low across the region, but stocks of US advanced offensive weapons and munitions are likewise worryingly depleted. Numbers of Tomahawks, for example, are not expected to be fully replenished for five years. This has an effect on the bigger picture: the longer the conflict drags on, the weaker Washington's deterrence against Beijing and Moscow.
Tehran has responded to US strikes by attacking targets in Gulf states such as Mangaf, south of Kuwait City - AFP
Strategically, Trump faces a fork in the road. On the one hand, he could choose to destroy this regime, whatever the cost in blood and treasure. Economic warfare, such as targeting oil refineries, terminals and export infrastructure, would form part of that strategy, providing a pivot away from mere maritime suppression. Such a course would mean alliance building with armed opposition groups and defectors inside Iran, as well as preparing to police post-collapse stability.
Can you see the president, who has lost much of his domestic strength, going for that? Me neither, especially with the midterm elections approaching. The alternative would involve another negotiated deal carrying the same kind of humiliations – unconscionable American concessions on everything from missiles to proxies, combined with promises of hundreds of billions of dollars – that we saw in the June memorandum. And look how that worked out.
So Trump defaults to rolling coercive containment. With neither side willing – America – or able – Iran – to inflict the coup de grâce, they fall into a loop of attrition. Tehran tests the agreement; Washington retaliates against strategic military capabilities and civilian infrastructure; Tehran hits Gulf states, military bases and shipping in the Strait; mediators stitch together another temporary pause. It all looks rather like another "forever war", caused by the incompetence of the very president who vowed to end them.