CNN Gives Dems Harsh Reality Check for Midterms By Comparing Polling From '06 and '18

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CNN data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday gave House Democrats reason for concern and Republicans reason for hope as they look toward next year’s midterm elections.

The midterms for the party that holds the White House have traditionally been problematic, often resulting in a wave of victories for the other side, such as for the Republicans in 1994 and 2010, and for the Democrats in 2006 and 2018, but such a scenario so far does not appear to be shaping up.

Enten noted, “The Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.”

In July 2005 and July 2017, they held seven-point leads with the midterms a little over a year away.

Enten also looked back at a congressional district-by-district analysis at this point in the election cycle. In 2007, Democrats were on track to pick up seven seats, and in 2017, they were on track for 33 seats.

They actually netted 30 seats and 40 seats, respectively, so a lot can still happen.

But, Enten pointed out, while Republicans were behind Democrats going into the 2006 and 2018 midterms, this time they hold a 12-seat lead among those rated “solid” by Cook Political Report.

Do you think Republicans will likely keep the House?

Yes: 100% (74 Votes)

No: 0% (0 Votes)

“This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2008,” Enten said. “At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does like either 2018 or 2006.”

Republicans held the House in 2024, though the Democrats had a net gain of two seats.

The GOP currently has a 220 to 212 majority, with three seats won by Democrats in November now vacant due to deaths in office.

Republicans can only lose two seats and still maintain control of the chamber. Looking closer at the Cook analysis, the GOP leads the Democrats in those seats rated as solid, likely, or lean Republican, 211 to 204. There are 18 races rated as a toss-up.

Enten concluded, “For anyone who is writing the Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game.”

Gallup reported in January that the GOP, for the third year in a row, held the edge in party affiliation.

“Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991,” the polling firm said.

A Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll released Monday found that 40 percent of respondents approve of the Democratic Party, down from 42 percent in June.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party has a 48 percent approval rating, up one percentage point from last month.

So the momentum, at this point, appears to be with the GOP.

Contributing Journalist

SummaryMore Biographical InformationRecent PostsContact

Randy DeSoto has written more than 3,000 articles for The Western Journal since he began with the company in 2015. He is a graduate of West Point and Regent University School of Law. He is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths" and screenwriter of the political documentary "I Want Your Money."

Birthplace

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Nationality

American

Honors/Awards

Graduated dean's list from West Point

Education

United States Military Academy at West Point, Regent University School of Law

Books Written

We Hold These Truths

Professional Memberships

Virginia and Pennsylvania state bars

Location

Phoenix, Arizona

Languages Spoken

English

Topics of Expertise

Politics, Entertainment, Faith

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