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on

June 29, 2026

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Mapped: The Global Fertility Divide Key Takeaways

Just 43% of the world’s countries have fertility rates above the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman.

Europe, East Asia, and most of the Americas are now below replacement, while most African countries remain above it.

A handful of countries, from Tunisia to Guatemala, stand out as exceptions to their regional trends.

The world is becoming increasingly divided by fertility.

One group of countries now has too few births to naturally replace its population, while another continues to see population growth driven by higher fertility rates. This demographic divide has major implications for aging populations, labor markets, immigration, and future economic growth.

This map shows which countries are above and below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, using projections for 2025 from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.

While the regional patterns are striking, several countries buck the trend.

Fertility Rates by Country

The table below lists projected fertility rates for 2025 and whether each country falls above or below the 2.1 replacement threshold.

CountryTotal Fertility Rate (TFR)Above or Below 2.1
(Replacement Rate)

Chad	5.94	Above
Somalia	5.91	Above
DR Congo	5.90	Above
Central African Republic	5.81	Above
Niger	5.79	Above
Mali	5.42	Above
Angola	4.95	Above
Burundi	4.68	Above
Afghanistan	4.66	Above
Mozambique	4.62	Above
Mauritania	4.56	Above
Mayotte	4.50	Above
Tanzania	4.47	Above
Benin	4.42	Above
Yemen	4.41	Above
Nigeria	4.30	Above
Sudan	4.19	Above
Cameroon	4.19	Above
Ivory Coast	4.17	Above
Togo	4.07	Above
Uganda	4.06	Above
Congo	4.05	Above
Guinea	4.04	Above
Equatorial Guinea	4.04	Above
Burkina Faso	4.00	Above
Zambia	3.97	Above
Madagascar	3.84	Above
Ethiopia	3.81	Above
Gambia	3.80	Above
Liberia	3.79	Above
Comoros	3.76	Above
Samoa	3.75	Above
Senegal	3.71	Above
South Sudan	3.71	Above
Guinea-Bissau	3.68	Above
Zimbabwe	3.62	Above
Sierra Leone	3.61	Above
Eritrea	3.61	Above
Rwanda	3.59	Above
Gabon	3.54	Above
Malawi	3.53	Above
Vanuatu	3.53	Above
Sao Tome and Principe	3.53	Above
Pakistan	3.50	Above
Solomon Islands	3.47	Above
Uzbekistan	3.45	Above
Ghana	3.30	Above
French Guiana	3.29	Above
Nauru	3.25	Above
Palestine	3.19	Above
Iraq	3.17	Above
Namibia	3.17	Above
Tuvalu	3.14	Above
Kenya	3.12	Above
Kiribati	3.09	Above
Tonga	3.07	Above
Papua New Guinea	3.03	Above
Tajikistan	2.99	Above
Kazakhstan	2.95	Above
Marshall Islands	2.82	Above
Israel	2.75	Above
Kyrgyzstan	2.75	Above
Egypt	2.71	Above
Guam	2.71	Above
Micronesia	2.71	Above
Eswatini	2.68	Above
Algeria	2.67	Above
Syria	2.66	Above
Botswana	2.66	Above
Lesotho	2.64	Above
Turkmenistan	2.63	Above
Saint Martin (French part)	2.63	Above
Haiti	2.59	Above
Mongolia	2.58	Above
Djibouti	2.58	Above
Jordan	2.57	Above
Tokelau	2.57	Above
Timor-Leste	2.56	Above
Cambodia	2.51	Above
Bolivia	2.50	Above
Oman	2.48	Above
Niue	2.46	Above
Honduras	2.45	Above
Paraguay	2.39	Above
Guyana	2.37	Above
Laos	2.36	Above
Saudi Arabia	2.29	Above
Northern Mariana Islands	2.28	Above
Guatemala	2.26	Above
Libya	2.25	Above
Fiji	2.25	Above
American Samoa	2.25	Above
Lebanon	2.21	Above
Suriname	2.21	Above
Faroe Islands	2.20	Above
South Africa	2.19	Above
Dominican Republic	2.19	Above
Morocco	2.18	Above
Nicaragua	2.18	Above
Western Sahara	2.15	Above
Réunion	2.13	Above
Bangladesh	2.11	Above
Indonesia	2.10	Above
Panama	2.09	Below
Monaco	2.09	Below
Myanmar	2.08	Below
Seychelles	2.08	Below
United States Virgin Islands	2.07	Below
Venezuela	2.06	Below
Guadeloupe	2.05	Below
Belize	2.01	Below
Cook Islands	2.00	Below
Martinique	1.97	Below
New Caledonia	1.95	Below
India	1.94	Below
Peru	1.94	Below
Nepal	1.94	Below
Sri Lanka	1.94	Below
Greenland	1.91	Below
Philippines	1.88	Below
Vietnam	1.88	Below
Gibraltar	1.88	Below
Mexico	1.87	Below
Palau	1.86	Below
Tunisia	1.80	Below
Montenegro	1.80	Below
Ecuador	1.79	Below
Georgia	1.79	Below
Bahrain	1.78	Below
Dem. People's Republic of Korea	1.77	Below
El Salvador	1.75	Below
St. Vincent & Grenadines	1.75	Below
Bulgaria	1.74	Below
Moldova	1.72	Below
Romania	1.71	Below
Armenia	1.71	Below
Brunei	1.71	Below
Qatar	1.70	Below
Barbados	1.70	Below
Falkland Islands	1.69	Below
Iran	1.67	Below
Azerbaijan	1.66	Below
New Zealand	1.65	Below
France	1.64	Below
Australia	1.64	Below
St. Helena	1.64	Below
United States	1.62	Below
Turkey	1.62	Below
Colombia	1.62	Below
Aruba	1.61	Below
Brazil	1.60	Below
Ireland	1.60	Below
Slovenia	1.58	Below
Antigua and Barbuda	1.58	Below
Slovakia	1.57	Below
Maldives	1.55	Below
United Kingdom	1.54	Below
Liechtenstein	1.54	Below
Malaysia	1.53	Below
Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244)	1.53	Below
Isle of Man	1.53	Below
Portugal	1.52	Below
Denmark	1.52	Below
Trinidad and Tobago	1.52	Below
Cayman Islands	1.51	Below
St. Kitts & Nevis	1.51	Below
Argentina	1.50	Below
Hungary	1.50	Below
Serbia	1.50	Below
Kuwait	1.50	Below
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.50	Below
Cape Verde	1.50	Below
Iceland	1.50	Below
French Polynesia	1.48	Below
Czechia	1.47	Below
Croatia	1.47	Below
North Macedonia	1.47	Below
Dominica	1.47	Below
Russia	1.46	Below
Germany	1.46	Below
Grenada	1.46	Below
Cuba	1.45	Below
Bonaire	1.45	Below
Montserrat	1.45	Below
Netherlands	1.44	Below
Sweden	1.44	Below
Switzerland	1.44	Below
Bhutan	1.44	Below
Turks and Caicos Islands	1.44	Below
Sint Maarten	1.43	Below
Norway	1.42	Below
Bermuda	1.41	Below
Luxembourg	1.40	Below
Wallis & Futuna	1.40	Below
Belgium	1.39	Below
Uruguay	1.39	Below
St. Lucia	1.38	Below
Jersey	1.38	Below
Cyprus	1.37	Below
Estonia	1.37	Below
Guernsey	1.37	Below
Bahamas	1.36	Below
Latvia	1.35	Below
Anguilla	1.35	Below
Greece	1.34	Below
Jamaica	1.34	Below
Canada	1.33	Below
Austria	1.33	Below
Albania	1.33	Below
Poland	1.31	Below
Costa Rica	1.31	Below
Finland	1.30	Below
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	1.28	Below
Japan	1.23	Below
Spain	1.23	Below
Belarus	1.22	Below
Lithuania	1.22	Below
Italy	1.21	Below
United Arab Emirates	1.21	Below
Mauritius	1.21	Below
Thailand	1.19	Below
San Marino	1.16	Below
Chile	1.13	Below
Malta	1.11	Below
Andorra	1.10	Below
Curacao	1.07	Below
British Virgin Islands	1.06	Below
China	1.02	Below
Ukraine	1.00	Below
Singapore	0.96	Below
Puerto Rico	0.94	Below
Taiwan	0.86	Below
St. Barthélemy	0.83	Below
South Korea	0.75	Below
Hong Kong	0.74	Below
Macao	0.69	Below

The Great Fertility Divide

The divide is strikingly regional.

Europe is entirely below replacement fertility, joined by most countries across the Americas and East Asia. Meanwhile, most African countries, along with parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, remain above the replacement threshold.

The map also reveals several notable exceptions.

Geographic Pockets That Buck the Trend

While regional patterns are remarkably consistent, several countries stand out as exceptions to their neighbors:

Central America: Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala all have fertility rates just over replacement. On both the north and south sides, virtually every other country in the Americas is below replacement.

Africa: Tunisia is the sole country in continental Africa with a rate under 2.1.

South America: There are two pockets of higher fertility: Peru and Paraguay, and the Guianas (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana).

Middle East: UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain are below 2.1, while surrounding nations in virtually every direction are above replacement.

South/Central Asia: A strip of connected countries, from Pakistan all the way up through Kazakhstan to Mongolia, has higher fertility. Bangladesh also stands out as higher fertility.

Southeast Asia: Laos and Cambodia stand out as above replacement. Indonesia is the only country with exactly a 2.1 fertility rate, equal to replacement.

Most of these outliers are countries at different stages of the demographic transition than their neighbors.

Their fertility rates remain above or below replacement while surrounding countries have already moved in the other direction, creating pockets that stand apart from the broader regional pattern.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, see Japan’s birthrate collapse over the last 60 years in this visualization on Voronoi.