The war between Iran and Israel shows no signs of abating, heightening fears about how the situation may unfold. Now, the world is waiting to see if President Donald Trump will intervene directly in the conflict. Chances are, he will—and will come to regret it later.

The fighting—which was triggered by Israel’s surprise attack that killed senior Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists—has claimed many lives and caused serious damage on both sides.

In that attack, Iran lost its top military cadre, but this loss has not translated into Israel gaining a decisive upper hand in the conflict. The Islamic Republic managed to regroup relatively swiftly, launching massive barrages of missiles and drones that have sent millions of Israelis running to bomb shelters, often multiple times a day.

Retired U.S. army colonel and former Pentagon advisor Douglas Macgregor emphasized, in a post on X, how quickly Iran managed to respond after its initial shock.

Iran was caught off-guard. But Iran recovered more quickly from its Pearl Harbor moment than Israel expected. In less than 18 hours after Israel’s surprise attack, Iran responded [by] firing hundreds of ballistic missiles including hypersonic missiles into central Tel Aviv and across Israel.

Another feature of Iran’s response has likely also brought disappointment to Israeli leaders. Iranian public support for their government has increased as a result of the war, including among those who have opposed the government in ordinary times, according to sources in Tehran who spoke to The American Conservative.

“The opposition includes nationalists, those with communist tendencies, some of the youth, those frustrated with the economy, and those who generally oppose the regimes policies,” explained Mossadegh Mossadeghpoor, a Tehran-based political commentator. “They don’t look at the situation through the prism of the regime but rather through the country of Iran itself and what benefits the people, and if the people are harmed, they of course take a stance, hence they are siding with the regime.”

Reactions from longstanding critics of the Iranian government support this argument. Sadegh Zibakalam—an Iranian author known for his vocal criticism of the government—wrote on X, 

I am truly amazed by the expectations of Netanyahu, Trump, or Prince Reza Pahlavi who want me to support Israel and stand up against the regime in these circumstances. Which opposition figure has spoken and written as much against the regime as I have? But how can I join the enemy in this situation?

With Israel further intensifying its bombing campaign, leading to further loss of civilian lives and damage to infrastructure, popular support for the Iranian government is only expected to increase.

This factor will make it easier for the leadership in Tehran to sustain its war effort without fear of a local backlash, especially since Israel initiated the conflict. Popular support better positions Iran to wage a prolonged war with Israel, much in the way it did with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. 

Despite Iran’s loss of a major ally in the former Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group, additional caution is warranted in seeing Tehran as an isolated player internationally. 

Some have suggested that Tehran may employ the services of Al Qaeda. This argument was put forward by David Ignatius of the Washington Post, citing U.S. officials who warn that Tehran has built good ties with Seif al-Adel, who is believed to have taken over the leadership of Al Qaeda and is alleged to be based in Iran (Tehran has vehemently denied the presence of Al Qaeda operatives on its soil).

However, even setting aside the ideological differences between Shiite Iran and Salafi-Jihadi Al Qaeda, Tehran likely wants to avoid a strategic partnership that would play into the hands of the enemy. Israel and its supporters in Washington have long sought to cast the Islamic Republic and Al Qaeda as one and the same in a bid to frame Tehran as a common threat to both Israel and the West more broadly. 

It is rather the stance of countries like Pakistan that deserves attention. In a statement that likely surprised many, Pakistani defense minister Khawaja Asif affirmed Islamabad’s strong support for Tehran.

“Just as Israel is currently targeting Yemen, Iran, and Palestine, if the Muslim world does not unite today and continues to prioritize its own interests and agendas, then everyone’s turn will come,” said Asif.

While it is unlikely that this will translate into Pakistan becoming an active participant in the war in support of Iran, there is reason to believe that this could change should the very survival of the Iranian leadership come into question.

This owes to the immense and likely disastrous repercussions that would result from Iran’s descent into chaos if its leadership were to collapse. In such a scenario, Pakistan’s national security would face major challenges, given its shared border with Iran. Pakistan already sees itself as living in in a hostile neighborhood, due to its animosities with India and Afghanistan. The destabilization of Iran would dramatically worsen Pakistan’s security situation.

Turkey, too, seems to sense a growing threat to the region from Israel. This week President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel’s attack on Iran and announced he was moving to boost Turkey’s defense-industrial base.

A threat to the survival of the Iranian leadership may also change the calculus of Russia, which has a security partnership with Tehran and is separated from Iran only by the Caspian Sea. Moscow would not take kindly to U.S. intervention in yet another country in its neighborhood, even if it would benefit, in the short term, from Washington’s attention being turned away from Ukraine. U.S.–Russia tensions would likely rise even further if Trump entered the Iran war directly.

With these factors in mind, the Trump administration would do well to avoid entanglement in a regime-change war against Iran that has long been Netanyahu’s dream. Unfortunately, however, there is every reason to believe that Trump will be dragged into the conflict. 

Israeli officials have assessed that the United States will soon join Israel in conducting strikes on Iran. This assessment came after Trump convened a meeting for his national security council to discuss the situation. Trump’s rhetoric took on a sharply escalatory tone following Israel’s surprise attack last week, even raising the possibility of assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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Trump should think twice before taking that step, and not just because of the dangers of eroding norms against assassinating political leaders. Killing Khamenei could render Iran a much more formidable challenge.

“After the killing of the Iranian [military] leaders, a younger generation have come to power in Iran,” explained Mossadeghpoor. These new leaders, he warned, were very dangerous and extreme compared to the older generation that were eliminated by Israel—and Khamenei stands in the way of Tehran becoming more belligerent, radical, and unstable.

“If, God forbid, the Supreme leader was out of the picture, it is quite possible that the situation would either deteriorate or there will be coups and divisions even worse than the situation in Libya.”