While most rural voters are not farmers, agriculture is a critical piece of the rural economy, making farm policy one of the primary ways federal policymaking affects those communities. Some voters may support tariffs in theory in the hopes they could revitalize the labor market and prompt fairer trade terms for farm goods, but polling suggests they view Trump’s plans as too arbitrary to achieve those goals.

A majority of people surveyed in an October POLITICO poll (53 percent) supported avoiding tariffs on imports if that meant keeping costs low for consumers.

Spanberger, the Virginia governor-elect, won in part by focusing her messaging in rural counties on tariffs and tying the economic discomfort voters were feeling to Trump and the Republican Party. She outperformed Kamala Harris in 48 of Virginia’s 52 rural localities.

National Democrats, excited by Spanberger’s success, have made their own moves: Beyond the DCCC’s eight-figure investment into rural voters and voters of color and the new farmer-focused ad campaigns, a caucus of more than 100 moderate Democratic lawmakers recently released a policy agenda that includes passing a farm bill, expanding rural broadband funding and federal funding for local food purchases.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the Trump administration’s policies and said “supporting rural Americans has been a key focus,” which is why the administration has sought to use tariffs to open up new export markets for farmers.

The RNC isn’t fazed either.

“Rural America won’t suddenly be tricked into thinking elite Democrats stand for their beliefs and values. The DNC spending a few bucks won’t fool rural Americans into thinking Democrats have touched grass,” RNC spokesperson Delanie Bomar said.

One Big Beautiful Mess

Trump’s signature tax-and-spending law provides Democrats with another opening to contrast their pitch against Republicans.

Rural health care centers across the country have already shuttered in response to the law’s Medicaid cuts, which will disproportionately hit communities where hospitals are few and often primary employers. Low-income Americans are quickly learning they may no longer qualify for federal food aid — even as most of the tax breaks the GOP has touted will benefit the wealthy.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association and represents a ruby red state, recently called the law “a slap in the face to rural America.”

And POLITICO’s November poll revealed that voters are more likely to rely on Democrats when it comes to health care policy. More than 40 percent of those surveyed said they trusted Democrats to bring down health care costs for ordinary Americans, compared with 33 percent who said they trusted the GOP.

The message for Democrats is “wrapped up and with a nice, tidy bow on it in the Big, Beautiful Bill,” said Christopher Borick, a political science professor who runs the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “It’s cuts to your health care, it’s cuts to rural hospitals. It’s cuts to SNAP benefits, and it’s just so tidy and neat for Democrats to go there.”

The strategy seems to be working. In a heavily Republican congressional district in Tennessee, Democrat Aftyn Behn beat expectations and outperformed Harris’ 2024 margins in a bid to unseat GOP Rep. Matt Van Epps this month.

Behn’s ads largely focused on affordability and the fallout from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which she called the “one big BS bill.”

That tactic resonated with voters in an off-cycle election and will only gain steam: Americans’ health care premiums are set to skyrocket ahead of the 2026 midterms after Republicans declined to extend Covid-era “enhanced” subsidies of Affordable Care Act plans in their big bill.

Will history repeat itself?

Still, some political experts question how much Democrats can loosen the GOP’s hold on rural America.

The president’s first-term tariff war also hammered farmers, but their political ties to Republicans hardly wavered at the time. Democrats in 2024 used roughly the same playbook they’re seeking to capitalize on now, arguing that Trump’s proposed policies would increase the cost of living and that his tariffs would impose a new tax on the middle class — but they failed to gain enough ground with rural voters, enabling Republicans to win a trifecta.