No one knows why home runs are down

PublishedJune 17, 2025 5:45 PM EDT•UpdatedJune 17, 2025 5:45 PM EDT

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Somehow, some way, Major League Baseball can't seem to get a handle on the single most important thing that it does: produce the actual on-field baseball. 

For example, the baseball used during the 2019 regular season was juiced. Whether purposefully, through manufacturing inconsistencies, or by sheer random chance, offensive numbers that season skyrocketed. 10 players hit 40 home runs or more, and 53 hit more than 30. Including notables like Paul DeJong, Yuli Gurriel, Rougned Odor, Randall Grichuk, Eddie Rosario, Kole Calhoun and Austin Meadows. 

Four of the top five team home run seasons in the history of the sport happened in 2019: the Twins hit 307, the Yankees hit 306, the Astros hit 288 and the Dodgers hit 279. Teams averaged 4.83 runs per game, the most since 2006 and the second-highest number since the 2000 steroid-era offenses. 

This year? Despite the success of superstars like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, it's the polar opposite. And thanks to research, we have confirmation and an explanation as to why offense continues to decline: the ball is dead. 

Los Angeles, CA - May 17:  Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts towards the Los Angeles Angels prior in the first inning during a baseball game at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Saturday, May 17, 2025.(Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

This Year's MLB Baseball Doesn't Fly As Far As It Used To

The Athletic reported that this year's ball has more drag on it than in any of the previous nine years that data's been available. What does that mean? More drag on the ball means it doesn't fly as far through the air, and sure enough, fly balls hit with the same profile as in years past land 4 feet shorter than they used to. 

The league's even admitting as such. Per The Athletic's report, spokesman Glen Caplin confirmed that the league has found the same change. 

"For the last several seasons, MLB has made drag information available to the public online, which is updated daily during the season," Caplin said. "We are aware of an increase in average drag this season and have provided information to the Major League Baseball Players Association on this issue as our experts continue to study any potential causes beyond normal variability in a product made by hand with natural materials. There has been no change to the manufacturing, storage or handling of baseballs this year, and all baseballs remain within specifications."

One source told The Athletic that a miniscule change in the dimensions of the seams is one possible explanation. Players have noticed it too; Athletics DH and outfielder Brent Rooker told them he's "definitely hit some balls that I thought were gonna have a chance and they've been caught against the wall. Maybe the extra drag is why my expected slugging percentage is 100 points higher than my actual slugging percentage."

In 2019, 15.3% of fly balls hit league-wide became home runs, thanks to the juiced ball. This year? It's just 11.1%. That's the lowest figure in over a decade. And it's despite hitters putting more fly balls into play relative to grounders than at any point in the past 15 years. 

It's doubtful the league is doing something malicious or purposeful. After all, recent rule changes have been designed to increase offense, not limit it. Mostly unsuccessfully, but still. 

That doesn't change the fact that the ball is dead. And despite the fact that it's impacting on-field performance and outcomes, the league doesn't understand how or why. They'd better figure it out sooner rather than later.