Democrats are pointing to the higher turnout in this year’s congressional primaries and special elections as evidence that voters are increasingly frustrated with Washington and energized ahead of the 2026 midterms.

A Washington Post analysis of House primary races across 25 states found Democrat turnout has risen sharply compared with the last midterm cycle. More than 90% of Democrat House primaries held so far this year drew more voters than comparable races in 2022, when Republicans won back control of the House.

So far, Democrats have cast roughly 12.6 million primary ballots compared with 8.6 million for Republicans.

The numbers have boosted Democrat hopes of reclaiming Congress, though political analysts caution that primary turnout and special election results are often unreliable predictors of November outcomes.

“Something would really fundamentally have to change in a way that would favor the Republicans to change the dynamics that we’re seeing right now,” Michael McDonald, a University of Florida voter turnout researcher and political science professor, told the Post.

Republicans remain confident they can hold their advantage, arguing that general election voters are far different from the activists who dominate primary elections. GOP strategists also point to favorable congressional maps, strong fundraising, and historical voting trends that often determine midterm results.

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