Strait of Hormuz at least a year away from normal traffic: Kalshi
Market odds on Kalshi for when the Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic will return to normal are below 50% as of Friday afternoon.
Chances that the Strait’s traffic flow is normal by July 2027 plummeted to 47% from nearly 70% in the last two days. The drop came after the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with President Trump signaling a further “massive attack” against Iran in an interview with Axios on Thursday.
Similarly, odds of ship traffic resuming normally this year stand at 38%, while odds are only somewhat better, at 48% that regular shipments will be reached before April 2027. Kalshi’s event contract would resolve if the seven-day moving average of transit calls is above 60 in data verified by IMF Portwatch.
Tagged: Middle East BACK TO HOMEPAGE