Shutdown could boost Dem Spanberger in Va. governor's race: analysts

On the first day of early voting in Virginia this month, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger urged her fellow party members on Capitol Hill to abandon any effort that would lead to a government shutdown in Washington.
“As a Virginian, it is always my position that a government shutdown is never effective. They are always costly. They are always deeply impactful on the government workforce,” Spanberger told reporters outside the Fairfax Government Center, where she had just spoken to a crowd of supporters.
Spanberger, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Virginia, has long pointed to the Department of Government Efficiency’s slashing of the federal workforce as a key theme in her campaign to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) against state Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R).
Virginia had more than 300,000 federal workers at the beginning of 2025, surpassing nearly all other states except Maryland. A report from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, released in May, estimated Virginia would lose 32,000 jobs in 2025 and the state’s unemployment rate would reach its highest rate since 2021.
Adding to the Old Dominion’s woes is a recent White House budget office memorandum from Director Russell Vought that directed federal agencies to prepare for permanent layoffs if the government shuts down after the Sept. 30 funding deadline.
The threat of more job losses in Virginia would likely help Spanberger’s case that a Democrat must ascend to the governor’s mansion and reverse the federal job cuts that have occurred under President Donald Trump’s White House.
“People are already anxious about the economic situation. The shutdown makes it much worse,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington.
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