The rise of Nigel Farage has prompted political leaders across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to game the unthinkable: the breakup of the United Kingdom.

Unionists who wish to save the union and nationalists who wish to end it are bracing for constitutional turmoil if Reform UK emerges triumphant – with Farage as prime minister or official leader of the opposition – after the next election.

Representatives from each side believe a Farage-led government could trigger a hasty referendum on Irish unification and usher in Trump-style anti-immigration crackdowns that alienate the Celtic nations. The possibility of a strong Reform opposition or coalition spooks the nations just as much.

It is conceivable that “in just a handful of years’ time, people on the island of Ireland will be looking across the Irish Sea to a country where ICE-like snatch squads are arresting people off the streets” said Mark Drakeford, the former first minister of Wales, referring to the US Immigration ⁠and Customs Enforcement agency.

Drakeford, who has repeatedly said he would fight to retain the union, worries that politics in Britain has irrevocably changed and fears there “there may not be time” for a considered debate about the UK’s future if Farage reaches Downing Street or Reform significantly boosts its number of parliamentary seats from the eight it now holds.

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