For the first time in at least 50 years, more immigrants left the United States than entered in 2025, according to updated estimates released Tuesday by economists at the Brookings Institution.

Net migration fell by anywhere from 10,000 to 295,000 last year, based on updated modeling from Brookings economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson and American Enterprise Institute economist Stan Veuger.

While Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests and removals have drawn headlines, the researchers say the larger driver was a slowdown in new arrivals tied to President Donald Trump’s border and visa policies — from the near-closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to new restrictions, higher fees, and the winding down of humanitarian programs, including for nearly all refugees.

Deportations also played a role. The economists estimate there were roughly 300,000 deportations in 2025 — below the approximately 600,000 the Trump administration has described.

The Brookings estimates clash with a separate set of figures released last week by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which put net migration around 400,000 in 2025. The difference largely comes down to assumptions about outflows: the CBO model assumes fewer deportations and fewer voluntary departures than the Brookings approach.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration and immigration-restriction advocates, including the Center for Immigration Studies, have argued net migration was even more negative, based on higher estimates of both departures and deportations. Official government migration counts for 2025 won’t be available until later this year and may still lack precise data on how many people left.

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