Estonia's latest accusations that Russia is conducting provocations near the Baltic state shows how much the NATO member is in the crosshairs of Moscow’s expansionist aspirations, political scientist Carlo Masala told Newsweek. 

His book, "If Russia Wins: A Scenario," describes how Moscow could exploit a post-Ukraine war deal settled in the Kremlin’s favor to make a move on Estonia, whose 180-mile border with its vast neighbor makes it one of the alliance’s most exposed members. 

On October 10, Tallinn shut a border point after seven armed Russian men without insignia appeared on the road near the Saatse Boot crossing—the footwear-shaped section of Russia that juts into southeastern Estonia. 

Three weeks earlier, Tallinn accused Moscow of flying three Mikoyan Mig-31 fighter jets into its airspace, with tensions already high due to drone sightings across European countries also blamed on Moscow. 

These potential tests of NATO’s resolve have prompted the European Commission to warn this week that the EU has five years to prepare for war, according to a military plan, reported by Politico. 

But Masala’s scenario predicts an attack much sooner, with the Kremlin acting in 2028 on what it thinks is a reluctance by NATO to enact its Article 5 collective defense pledge and risk World War III against a nuclear-armed adversary. 

However, if Article 5 is not invoked in such a scenario, then “NATO comes to an end—NATO falls apart,” Masala told Newsweek, thus achieving Russia’s goal. 

How Russia Wins In Ukraine

Masala is a professor of politics at Bundeswehr University, which educates officers of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and he intended his book for a German audience, not anticipating it would capture global audience and be translated into a dozen languages. Drawing on his experience at NATO and with contacts in defense ministries across Europe, Masala’s scenario offers a speculative look at Russia’s intentions following the end of the war in Ukraine.  

Central to his thesis is what would define a Russian victory, which in his words would not be a ceasefire, but rather a “capitulation.”  

In his prediction, Ukraine would surrender the one fifth of territory currently occupied by Russia and Kyiv would be forced into a permanent neutrality clause in its constitution precluding NATO membership.  

While a U.N. peacekeeping mission can report ceasefire breaches, it would be short of a full military deterrence, under Masala’s thesis of a Russian triumph. 

“A Russian victory would be Russia gets what it occupies right now," Masala said, “even further, the Ukrainians will have to withdraw from territory they're currently holding,” referring to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Moscow claims to have annexed, but does not fully control. Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. 

Then Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have to step down and new presidential elections, thanks to Russian meddling, can usher in a pro-Kremlin leader.  

The future Ukrainian army, if Moscow has its way, will be a weak one and no meaningful international security guarantees would mean that “Russia then wins,” Masala said.

Lead-Up to Russia’s NATO Invasion 

Messaging from President Donald Trump that the U.S. may not come to Europe’s aid has prompted NATO’s European members to increase military spending but the continent will not be able to ramp up equipment production to offset the decrease in American hardware, Masala’s book outlines. 

Masala accepts that since he wrote his book, Trump has been more positive toward NATO, like during June’s alliance summit, but the “willingness to fight for Europe is dramatically decreasing” as the Western Hemisphere takes priority. 

Also, after the high-intensity phase of the Russia-Ukraine war, foreign policy priorities in Washington will shift to the Indo-Pacific. Europe could have right-wing leaders across who are likely to be less open to following NATO’s lead. 

Helping Moscow in the lead-up to its invasion are diversions elsewhere in the world, according to the book. 

In the South China Sea, Masala’s scenario envisages tensions between the Philippines and China boiling over with Beijing making a move on the disputed reef of Second Thomas Shoal, around which it establishes a maritime exclusion zone.  

This poses a problem for Washington, which is obliged to respond, given its bilateral agreement with Manila to do so, but after frantic diplomacy, involving ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Beijing concludes that the U.S. is not prepared to go to war over a reef. 

Moscow is jubilant at the destabilization, which coincides with a migrant crisis in southern Europe that it has stoked by visas Russia has issued en masse to Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi and Sudanese nationals. 

Russia Strikes

In Masala's book, Moscow’s plans to invade NATO's eastern flank include occupying the predominantly Russian-speaking Estonian city of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa, as the Kremlin assesses that the alliance would not want to risk war over what it will present as a small action. 

Masala’s book describes how by the end of March 2028, Estonia’s third largest city, Narva, with a predominantly Russia-speaking population of 57,000 people, has witnessed demonstrations against those claiming they are prevented from using their language and expressing their culture. Disinformation campaigns will stoke fears that they could be denied the right to vote and made second-class citizens by the government in Tallinn.  

“The Russians would like to have some kind of narrative which justifies their actions in the eyes not only of the Russian population, but also those who are sympathetic to Russia outside Russia,” Masala told Newsweek, “a powerful pretext would be the oppression of Russian-speaking minorities abroad.” 

This mirrored Moscow’s rhetoric when it entered Ukraine’s Donbas region in 2014, following the illegal annexation of Crimea, accusing Ukraine of oppressing Russian-speaking citizens to justify the war and occupation. It also chimes with the rhetoric pushed by the Kremlin that those in the so-called “Russian world” must be protected. 

Masala depicts how Narva will wake up to explosions on the morning of March 27, 2028, and be conquered by Russian troops within hours, helped in part by the pliancy of a sector of the population who had been armed in the lead-up to the invasion.  

The invasion is also aided by another diversion of Russian military drills at the southern part of the Estonia-Russia border, depriving a British-led NATO contingent 100 miles away of the time needed to respond to the surprise attack. 

At the same time, Russian soldiers disguised as tourists on the island of Hiiumaa spring into action, backed by two amphibious warships from Russia’s Baltic Fleet, which can implement a blockade of the Baltic States between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad. The Russian tricolor is soon flying in the island's town of Kardla, taking NATO by surprise.  

Masala’s book says that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko also lends his help by sending armed brigades to Astravyets, a small border town 30 miles from the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. “The attack on the Baltic states has begun,” Masala’s book said. 

The author said the main difference between his scenario and Moscow’s move in the Donbas region in 2014 was that in Ukraine, it was always about a land grab. “In Estonia, it's not about a land grab—it's about testing NATO's resolve.” 

But his scenario posits a split among NATO members over whether to invoke Article 5 of its charter. An alliance weakened by less American commitment might be reluctant to risk another war over what Moscow will present as a limited maneuver aimed at protecting Russian speakers. 

“I don't think that Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Union, what he wants is to dominate Europe as a whole, but definitely the politics and Eastern Europe,” Masala said. 

Putin’s ambitions may be the focus of Western policymakers, but notably Masala’s book describes how the president will stand aside and someone else would take over. The author’s aim was to show that the imperial agenda belongs not just to Putin, but the whole regime. “If Putin falls, we might even see someone who is even more hardline in power.”