University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape said Sunday that there is "absolutely no doubt" that President Donald Trump underestimated Iran at the outset of the conflict, warning that the United States is now "knocking on the door of stage three" after two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan.
"We need to give honest answers to direct questions like this," Pape told Newsmax's "Sunday Agenda." "The bottom line is there's absolutely no doubt President Trump underestimated Iran."
Pape, the author of the "Escalation Trap" Substack, said Trump initially expected military operations launched Feb. 28 to last only a matter of days and did not foresee the broader regional escalation that has followed.
"We are still continuing to underestimate, in my opinion," Pape said. "We're having a very hard time, as countries do, seeing the nationalist fighters on the other side of the battlefield. And those are burning quite bright now in Iran."
Pape's comments came as the United States carried out its eighth consecutive night of strikes against Iran following the deaths of two U.S. service members in Jordan. One additional service member remains missing.
He also warned the conflict is approaching a new phase.
"We are knocking on the door of stage three. In fact, we've never been closer to stage three," Pape said.
While U.S. forces have not yet begun ground operations to seize territory, Pape said Marines are already conducting operations in the region, including seizing ships.
"We have not crossed over into stage three ground operations yet," he said. "Since we haven't crossed over, there's some chance of pulling back."
Asked about Iran's increasingly hostile rhetoric, including threats against Americans, Pape said Tehran has shifted from seeking survival to pursuing revenge.
"Iran has moved from survival, to ambition for power, to revenge," he said. "That revenge motive is incredibly powerful for Iran."
Pape also warned that Iran's ties to terrorist organizations raise the possibility of additional attacks.
"We have to understand that Iran really is connected to terrorist groups," he said. "We have not yet seen issues of terrorism. We haven't yet seen issues of direct targeting of civilians. These are things that, unfortunately, we certainly can't rule out."
He praised U.S. service members operating in the region, saying, "Our troops have been nothing but magnificent all the way through, facing all of this danger, literally on the front lines of it," and offered his condolences to the troops killed this weekend.
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