The White House on Tuesday slammed an analysis from a policy research think tank based at Yale University that projected the $2,000 tariff dividend checks proposed by President Donald Trump would cost $450 billion and wipe out more than a year's worth of tariff income.

The analysis, released Monday night by The Budget Lab at Yale, examined a hypothetical version of Trump's proposed "tariff dividend" and concluded the rebates would far exceed projected tariff collections.

According to the report, "a one-time $2,000 per-person rebate with an income limit of $100,000 would cost $450 billion. That is about twice as large as the total revenue that will be raised by the administration's tariff hikes in 2026, per Budget Lab estimates."

The study found the payments would be "progressive — that is, [they] represent a larger share of income for lower-income families," and would create "small, temporary increases" in growth and employment.

Budget Lab modeling estimated the gross domestic product would rise 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and employment by 0.15 percentage points, but "this temporary boost to output would be erased after several years."

"The former Biden economists running the Yale Budget Lab should wait until the administration releases a concrete policy proposal for the president's tariff rebates before putting out a half-baked analysis relying on total speculation," a White House official told Newsmax.

Although the Budget Lab identifies itself as nonpartisan, several of its senior leaders previously served in the Biden administration.

Executive Director Martha Gimbel was a senior adviser at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Associate Director Harris Eppsteiner worked as a research economist and special assistant to the CEA chairman.

According to the Yale Daily News, the lab was founded by former Biden-administration economists Natasha Sarin, Danny Yagan, and Gimbel.

The study acknowledged that its conclusions hinge on assumed policy details, writing that "each dollar of tariff revenue can be 'used' only once" and warning that dedicating tariff receipts to rebate checks would leave no money for deficit reduction or other uses such as aid to farmers.

Any alternative use of the revenue, the authors noted, would require "higher borrowing, lower spending elsewhere, or other tax increases."

As of Tuesday, neither the White House nor the Treasury Department had released detailed legislative language for the proposed tariff dividend program, leaving all outside modeling — including Yale's — dependent on assumptions about how the plan might ultimately be structured.

Any dividend checks would have to be approved by Congress.

"We've taken in hundreds of millions in tariff money," Trump told reporters Monday.

"We're going to issue dividends later on, somewhere prior to probably the middle of next year, probably later than that. Thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.

"We're going to pay down debt. We have a lot of money from tariffs," added Trump.

"If we didn't have tariffs, this country would be in serious trouble."