The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst.

That's the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping.

According to Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.

Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history," crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.

Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.

RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released.

RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.

The index's glossary notes that its murder category excludes cases such as accidental deaths and deaths caused by negligence, meaning the index aims to track "willful (nonnegligent) killings," aligning closely with standard FBI definitions.

Asher earlier this fall cautioned that national crime estimates are often revised and that final "official" numbers can take years to settle.

Still, he argued the trend line is now so strong that the FBI will likely end up reporting the lowest U.S. murder rate ever recorded when full 2025 data are released, possibly dipping below the previous record low set in 2014.

The plunge in murders is also part of a broader drop in violent crime.

RTCI data show other major categories falling nationwide, including motor vehicle theft, robbery, and aggravated assault, suggesting the decline isn't limited to one region or one type of community.

Major cities are seeing some of the sharpest improvements.

Axios highlighted drops of nearly 20% in murders in New York City and Memphis, close to 28% in Chicago, and significant declines in Los Angeles County.

There are outliers, with a handful of jurisdictions reporting dramatic percentage spikes — a reminder that smaller agencies can see volatile swings from year to year.

The numbers arrive as President Donald Trump has made combating violent crime a major second-term priority.

The Trump administration is emphasizing stronger enforcement and expanded support for law enforcement.