While hurricane season draws to a close, Tampa’s housing market is facing its own storm.
Newly released data shows the city has surged to the highest foreclosure rate of any major U.S. metro, making it the country’s new epicenter for distressed properties, the Daily Mail reports.
In October, one out of every 1,373 homes in the Tampa area received a foreclosure filing — the formal notice sent when a borrower falls behind on payments. No other U.S. metro with more than one million residents came close to that level.
Nationwide, foreclosures are rising as well. The U.S. recorded 36,766 foreclosure filings in October, which marks a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year.
Tampa’s spike is particularly severe. The metro reported 1,087 foreclosure filings in October, a dramatic jump from the 366 filings recorded in October 2024.
Analysts at ATTOM say part of the increase comes from Hillsborough County clearing a backlog of delayed filings, but they emphasize that Tampa’s foreclosure numbers have been elevated for several months, signaling a deeper weakening of the local housing market.
Foreclosures, however, are only one part of a broader slowdown.
Local real estate professionals say Tampa’s downward shift is being driven by four main forces.
The first involves the lingering impact of hurricane damage in nearby coastal communities. Even neighborhoods that were not directly hit are experiencing hesitation from buyers who remain worried about future storms, insurance challenges, or long-term structural risks.
The second issue stems from the decline in Canadian migration to the United States, which has removed one of Tampa’s most reliable streams of homebuyers.
The third major problem is the wave of costly condo assessments that followed the 2021 Surfside collapse. In the wake of the tragedy, Florida enacted strict building-safety rules that require expensive structural inspections and major repairs for older buildings.
Many condo owners are now facing special assessments that can run into the tens of thousands of dollars. Buyers, wary of inheriting unpredictable future repair costs, are backing out of deals, particularly in older or high-rise buildings — of which Tampa has many.
The final issue is that Tampa simply is not attracting the same level of demand as Florida’s warmer southern metros. Buyers chasing year-round sunshine increasingly gravitate toward Miami, Naples, or Fort Myers, leaving Tampa with less competitive pull.
On top of those challenges, rising tariffs have pushed up the cost of construction materials and home renovations, leaving buyers with less spending power and making new development more expensive across the region.
As these pressures mount, Tampa has shifted firmly into buyer’s market territory. Tampa had a 7.2-month supply of homes in August, up from 6.3 months in June. Because anything above six months indicates a buyer-favored market, Tampa now ranks as the fifth-strongest buyer’s market among the 50 largest U.S. metros.
The shift follows Tampa’s dramatic rise during the pandemic, when the city became one of Florida’s fastest-growing boomtowns. People flocked to the area seeking more space and a sunnier climate, fueling a surge in development from 2020 through 2022.
Now, that boom has reversed. Demand is dwindling, newly built homes are sitting on the market, and population growth has slowed sharply. Tampa recorded a net inflow of just 10,000 residents last year — far below the 35,000 who moved there in 2023.
The condo market has been hit especially hard. Across the United States, the number of condo sellers has far outpaced buyers. In August, there were 72.3% more condo sellers than buyers nationwide, amounting to 108,945 more sellers. Florida cities dominate the list of metros with the biggest imbalances, and Tampa stands out with an even more extreme gap: there were 241.2% more condo sellers than buyers, one of the highest surpluses in the country.
Tampa also had the highest home-sale cancellation rate in the country in September, with 20% of pending deals falling through. That figure is significantly higher than the 17.7% reported during the same month the previous year.
Home values in the area continue to slide. Tampa home prices dropped 3.3% year-over-year in August, marking the steepest decline of any major U.S. city. The metro has now seen 10 consecutive months of falling prices, underscoring the depth of the slowdown.