Russian officials have produced no evidence supporting their claims that President Vladimir Putin's residence was attacked by Ukrainian drones.
That is the blunt assessment of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which says the Kremlin is still pushing the sensational allegation about a supposed Dec. 28-29 strike on Putin's residence in Novgorod Oblast while refusing to back it up with proof.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov even suggested Russia shouldn't have to provide evidence at all, telling reporters Tuesday that he does not think there "should be any evidence" and deflecting questions about possible debris to Russia's military.
ISW noted the story has been riddled with inconsistencies since it surfaced.
Russia's Defense Ministry initially claimed Monday that its forces shot down 41 drones over Novgorod Oblast.
But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov separately claimed far more drones targeted Putin’s residence that same night — a discrepancy highlighted by Russian and Western observers.
Later, the Defense Ministry issued an updated report claiming 91 drones were involved, including alleged intercepts over Bryansk and Smolensk oblasts, which it said were flying toward Novgorod.
ISW said the geography and evidence don’t add up.
Valdai, where Putin is believed to have a residence, sits hundreds of miles from Bryansk and Smolensk borders, and the presence of drones in those areas would not automatically mean they were headed toward Novgorod.
ISW also said it has not observed credible reports or footage, the kind that typically accompanies Ukrainian deep strikes, to corroborate the Kremlin's narrative.
Russian opposition and insider sources reported that residents around Valdai did not hear drone activity or air-defense fire, sounds they said are usually noticeable during past strikes.
France, after checking information with partners, also found "no solid evidence" of an attack on Putin's personal residence, according to Le Monde, ISW reported.
Despite the lack of proof, ISW said Kremlin officials are already using the alleged incident to harden their negotiating posture and push the West toward surrendering to Moscow’s original demands from 2021 and 2022.
Peskov said Russia would "harden" its position, while Russian lawmakers called for a U.S.-Russia peace plan to be imposed on Ukraine, and for Kyiv’s capitulation.
Lavrov reiterated demands for Ukraine’s neutrality, "demilitarization," and "denazification," along with recognition of Russia’s claimed annexations, ISW said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the accusation as a fabrication intended to justify more attacks and sabotage peace efforts following his meeting with President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Reuters reported that Putin told Trump that Russia would review its negotiation stance after what Moscow claimed was a drone strike, while Ukraine dismissed the claim as a lie and accused Russia of trying to undermine talks.
To many conservatives skeptical of Russia's propaganda machine, ISW’s findings underscore a familiar pattern: Dramatic Kremlin claims, zero evidence and an attempt to leverage outrage into diplomatic advantage.