Stefanik Poll: Dem Gov. Hochul 'Deeply Vulnerable' in '26

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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a narrow advantage over Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., in a potential 2026 gubernatorial race, and loses that lead once voters hear about both candidates' records, according to a new internal poll released by Stefanik's political committee.

Stefanik's E-PAC survey, conducted by Grayhouse Strategies, found Hochul leading the Republican congresswoman 48%-43% in an initial ballot.

But after respondents were given information about both candidates' positions, including Hochul's endorsement of New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, Stefanik edged ahead 46.4%-45.9%.

"Kathy Hochul's coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among independents," pollster Landon Wall wrote in a memo accompanying the findings.

He said the survey of 1,250 likely voters shows Hochul in a "deeply vulnerable position."

"A sitting governor unable to secure majority support from her own party indicates substantial vulnerability," Wall said, describing Hochul as "one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country."

Nearly half of independent voters (47%) said they would be less likely to support Hochul or other Democrats in the 2026 midterms if Mamdani wins the mayor's race, the poll found.

Respondents also gave Hochul poor marks on issues including bail reform and New York's high cost of living.

Hochul's job approval stands at 39%, with 56% disapproving of her performance. Only 34% of likely voters said they are ready to reelect her, while 59% said it is time for someone new.

The poll also measured Hochul's standing among Democrats, finding her struggling even before facing Republicans. In a potential primary matchup against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado — who announced in June he would challenge Hochul — the governor received just 43% support, compared to 14% for Delgado, 15% for another candidate, and 28% undecided.

Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference, is expected to formally announce her campaign after the November vote and is widely seen as the GOP's likely nominee.

"The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party," Stefanik said in a statement.

"It is now crystal clear why Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the communist antisemite running for mayor of New York City because she desperately needed to shore up her own party."

Stefanik blamed Hochul for "destroying New York State," citing what she called an affordability crisis, high taxes, and rising energy and grocery costs, along with "failed bail reform" and "sanctuary state" policies.

Alex deGrasse, a senior adviser to Stefanik, said the poll's results were "devastating" for Hochul.

"What is truly remarkable about this poll is that this is before Elise has even formally announced her campaign," he said. "There is a reason why Kathy is running scared."

The Grayhouse poll surveyed 1,250 New York likely voters statewide Sept. 20-26, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Sandy Fitzgerald

Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics. 

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