The latest national polling shows something that many political observers have missed: President Donald Trump's standing with the American people is improving during a week dominated by his ceasefire initiative and negotiations with Iran.
Our June 17-23 national survey of 1,000 likely November midterm voters found that President Trump's job approval has risen to 50%, with 46% disapproving.
That's a significant milestone in today's polarized political environment and demonstrates that voters continue to give the president credit for his leadership on the issues that matter most.
At the same time, Republicans still trail Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 46%-43%, underscoring that while the president's personal standing has strengthened, congressional Republicans still have work to do heading into the midterm elections.
Perhaps most striking, however, is the public's reaction to President Trump's Iran ceasefire initiative.
A majority of likely voters — 51%-34% — approve of what they have seen or read regarding the ceasefire deal.
That finding alone suggests Americans broadly support the president's effort to reduce tensions while pursuing America's national security interests.
But beneath those topline numbers lies an important lesson about media consumption and political messaging.
When we tested specific provisions from the Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding, the results revealed a clear messaging gap.
Voters who receive their news primarily from right-of-center media outlets support the ceasefire by an overwhelming 72%-17% margin.
In contrast, voters who rely on left-of-center media oppose the agreement 54%-35%.
Those who do not regularly watch cable news slightly favor the deal, 42%-36%.
These differences strongly suggest that many Americans are not hearing the most popular elements of the agreement.
Consider what happens when voters evaluate the individual provisions:
- 76% approve requiring that Iran never produce a nuclear weapon, backed by American and international inspections to verify compliance. Only 14% disapprove. Support is broad, bipartisan, and cuts across virtually every demographic and political group.
- 75% approve requiring Iran to stop funding international terrorism directed at Israel and other nations. Only 14% disapprove. Again, this is a position that unites Americans regardless of party.
Those are not controversial objectives. They represent overwhelming national consensus.
Yet the overall debate surrounding the agreement often fails to emphasize these provisions.
There are, however, components of the memorandum that voters find less appealing:
- Only 39% approve maintaining the status quo on Iran's nuclear program while the United States refrains from imposing additional sanctions or expanding its regional military presence. Forty-four percent disapprove.
- Only 38% approve allowing Iran to maintain low-level uranium enrichment, while 49% disapprove. Opposition is especially strong among Republicans, conservatives and Trump voters.
These findings illustrate an important reality.
Americans strongly support the president's core objective: ensuring Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.
They are more skeptical of concessions that could appear to weaken that objective.
That is why it is important to remember that this ceasefire represents the beginning of negotiations — not the final agreement.
Public opinion gives President Trump substantial political capital to pursue a stronger final outcome.
Americans overwhelmingly support verification, inspections, preventing nuclear weapons, and ending Iranian sponsorship of terrorism.
Those are powerful negotiating positions backed by the electorate.
Much more remains to be done, and much will depend on the negotiations that follow.
The ultimate success of any agreement will be judged by whether it permanently prevents Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons while advancing American security interests.
The American people have made one thing unmistakably clear: President Trump has their support in pursuing that goal.
The challenge now is ensuring that voters hear the full story about what is actually in the negotiations — not simply the political debate surrounding them.