Uncertainty lingers over the future of the Strait of Hormuz despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as shipping companies and energy markets weigh whether commercial traffic can safely return to one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.
The Hill reported Monday that mixed messages from Washington and Tehran continue to fuel uncertainty about the waterway's future, even as the Trump administration says maritime traffic is beginning to recover.
U.S. Central Command said over the weekend that commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had increased and that safe passage remained intact, according to The Hill.
The strait handles 20% of global oil shipments, making it one of the most strategically important energy corridors in the world.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to reassure markets during an appearance Saturday on Newsmax's "Saturday Report," saying oil flows through the strait were already returning to normal.
"The Strait of Hormuz is flowing back towards normal," Wright told Newsmax.
"The world's largest energy chokepoint has reopened," he added.
Wright also credited President Donald Trump's ceasefire agreement with helping calm energy markets after months of conflict.
"The world is safer. Americans are safer. Energy markets are safer," Wright said.
But analysts say uncertainty remains high despite the ceasefire.
"Everything's unpredictable," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told The Hill when asked what shipping traffic could look like during the 60-day ceasefire.
De Haan said shippers may gradually regain confidence, but added that neither markets nor shipping companies can be certain how either Tehran or Washington will act in the coming weeks.
"Americans and their affinity for cheap energy is kind of a driving power right now," De Haan told The Hill. "Imagine the pressure of seeing ... $5 gas and $6 diesel; that would really be the undoing of the GOP under Trump."
Adding to the uncertainty, Christopher Aversano, director of maritime partnerships for Wood Mackenzie, told The Hill that vessel traffic entering the strait dropped sharply from Saturday to Sunday, though the reasons remain unclear.
"On Saturday the 20th, Vesseltracker counted around 50 vessels entering the Strait, but that number was cut roughly in half the following day," Aversano told the outlet.
"It is unclear whether vessels simply switched off their AIS tracking, or whether they held back due to Iran's declaration that the strait was closed," he added.
The uncertainty comes even as the Trump administration moves forward with provisions of the ceasefire framework.
The Treasury Department on Monday issued a temporary general license authorizing certain transactions involving Iranian petroleum and petroleum products through Aug. 21, a move tied to implementation of the interim agreement.
Iran also appears to have secured significant concessions under the arrangement, which includes temporary relief allowing certain oil transactions to resume while broader negotiations continue.
The ceasefire memorandum states that Iran will let commercial vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz without charge for 60 days while talks continue over the future administration of the waterway, according to The Hill.
Industry experts caution that a return to prewar shipping levels could take months.
According to The Guardian, nearly 600 vessels remain backed up in Gulf waters, and maritime analysts warn that recovery will be gradual as shipping companies assess risks and work through a substantial backlog.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of maritime intelligence provider Lloyd's List, told The Guardian that the shipping industry remains in "uncharted territory" despite the ceasefire.
Clay Seigle, a nonresident scholar in energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Hill that ship owners are likely to resume normal operations only gradually as they wait to see whether major commercial carriers return to the Gulf.
Seigle also warned that recent events demonstrate Iran still has the ability to impose new transit fees or again disrupt shipping if tensions flare.
For now, however, oil markets remain relatively stable.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $75 per barrel Monday afternoon, according to The Hill.
AAA data cited by The Hill showed the national average gasoline price had fallen to $3.93 per gallon after reaching as high as $4.56 during the conflict.