Democrats have vowed to run on a lack of "affordability" in the midterms, but President Donald Trump is challenging that narrative with what he says are real actions and results, particularly on gasoline prices.

Posting a photo of July 21, 2022, gas prices in Las Vegas, Trump hailed what he called Year 1 of his second administration for delivering prices not seen since his first term.

"Now we are breaking $1.99 a gallon," Trump wrote Sunday on Truth Social, citing a figure that might be seen only in states like Oklahoma, which has the nation's lowest average gas prices today, according to AAA. 

"AFFORDABILITY!"

Trump's post comes just two days after a Forbes analysis projected that U.S. gas prices will continue declining throughout 2026, potentially reaching their lowest annual average since 2020.

According to a new GasBuddy report, the national average price of gasoline is expected to fall to $2.97 per gallon this year, down 13 cents from last year and marking the fourth consecutive annual decline.

Households are projected to spend $2,080 for the year on gasoline — levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 and 2021.

While analysts project a temporary rise into the low $3.20 range during the spring driving season, prices are expected to fall steadily after June, with December averages nearing $2.80 per gallon, according to the report.

Diesel prices are also forecast to decline, averaging $3.55 per gallon in 2026, though remaining above pre-pandemic levels.

GasBuddy analysts attribute the downward trend to the unwinding of post-pandemic market pressures that drove prices sharply higher earlier in the decade.

Supply chain disruptions, surging demand after COVID-19 lockdowns, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine — which affected roughly 8% of global oil supply — contributed to earlier spikes.

Since then, prices have gradually eased.

Now, Trump has restricted oil from Venezuela and declared Friday that the U.S. is "open for business" with Venezuelan oil globally, saying the goal is to use the funds to rebuild oil fields long controlled by Nicolas Maduro and revive the country's oil industry.

Regional differences are expected to persist. Areas along the Gulf Coast and much of the South are projected to see prices below $3 per gallon, while Democrat-controlled areas like California, the Northeast, and Chicago are likely to remain higher-priced markets.

Trump has repeatedly pointed to lower gasoline prices as evidence of improved affordability under his administration.

GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, told Forbes that geopolitical developments could take years to materialize, suggesting longer-term affordability gains during the latter years of Trump’s second administration.

Trump held a large roundtable discussion at the White House on Friday, urging major U.S. oil companies to commit to investing in rebuilding Venezuelan oil.