A new Republican congressional campaign memo argues that redistricting efforts have tilted the 2026 House map toward the GOP, reducing the number of competitive districts and complicating Democrats' path to a majority.

The redistricting push began after President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional map to create additional GOP-friendly seats, part of an effort to protect the party's narrow House majority in the 2026 midterm elections.

The National Republican Congressional Committee memo obtained by Politico said redistricting has created "structural dynamics [that] favor Republicans" by reducing the number of competitive House districts and forcing Democrats to target long-shot GOP seats.

"The composition of the House battlefield has completely flipped," the memo reads.

According to the NRCC, Republicans have an advantage in nearly every competitive district won by Trump in 2024, while redistricting has strengthened the party's standing in more than 40 districts Democrats are targeting.

In 2018, when Democrats gained 43 seats, Republicans controlled 23 districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and 42 districts in which Trump failed to reach 50%.

In 2026, there are 23 Democrats representing districts Trump won in 2024 and only 14 Republicans representing districts in which Trump received less than 50% of the vote.

"Across the 44 Republican-held seats Democrats claim to target, Trump averaged 53.2% in 2024," the memo reads. "By comparison, across the 43 seats Democrats flipped in 2018, Trump averaged just 46.6 percent in 2016 and never once won a majority."

Democrats argue that statistic reflects how poorly Vice President Kamala Harris performed in 2024.

"Democrats are poised to retake the House Majority and Republicans know it," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. "It's why they've resorted to trying to rig the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression, but it won't work."

Special elections have favored Democrats since Trump took office, and Trump has been plagued by poor approval ratings.

Democrats lead Republicans by 6.6 percentage points in national polling on congressional races, according to analyst Nate Silver. Democrats held a similar lead before gaining 43 House seats in the 2018 midterms.