For the first time in 15 years, experts say Iran has no path to building nuclear weapons, crediting President Donald Trump's June strikes on the country's key enrichment sites with dismantling Tehran's weapons program, the New York Post reported.
The assessment, led by David Albright, a former inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, reviewed available data after Operation Midnight Hammer, which targeted three of Iran's major nuclear sites.
"For the first time in over 15 years, no breakout estimate to weapon-grade uranium (WGU) is included in our reporting on the IAEA reports," Albright's team wrote. "Iran has no identifiable route to produce weapon-grade uranium in its centrifuge plants."
The June strikes followed Israel's 12-day military campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Trump then authorized Operation Midnight Hammer, deploying 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators against fortified sites, including the Fordow enrichment center, long considered beyond Israel's reach.
According to the institute's report, the strikes "destroyed or made inoperative all of Iran's installed centrifuges — almost 22,000 gas centrifuges — at Iran's three enrichment sites."
The analysis also concluded the bombing "destroyed Iran's ability to make gas centrifuges, severely degraded its capabilities to research and develop them, and destroyed Iran's ability to make uranium hexafluoride."
Trump declared the mission had "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, though initial skeptics called for patience until evidence emerged. The institute's findings bolster the president's claims, noting the "attacks caused immense destruction to Iran's ability to make the nuclear weapon itself."
Still, the report acknowledged uncertainties about whether any centrifuges survived outside the targeted sites or whether Iran retained usable enriched uranium. "Calculating a breakout time would require unsubstantiated speculation," the researchers said.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded to the attack by ending cooperation with the IAEA, leaving the global watchdog with "little to no information about Iran's nuclear material stockpiles or nuclear sites" since the conflict began. Albright's team instead relied on open-source data.
The institute added there were "no indications that Iran moved stocks outside of these three sites" before the bombings, undercutting speculation that hidden reserves might have been preserved.
Trump administration officials quickly celebrated the findings. "Your friendly reminder that Iran's nuclear capabilities are OBLITERATED!" White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said on X.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.