Robert Pape to Newsmax: Iran Talks Are Fight Over Gulf Power Balance

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Vice President JD Vance's talks with Iranian officials in Switzerland reflect a new phase in the Iran conflict, one centered on negotiations over regional power rather than simply ending hostilities, University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape told Newsmax on Sunday.

"What we're really seeing is that the battlefield has shifted to the negotiations," Pape told "Sunday Agenda" and guest host Joe Pinion.

The discussions now underway are "not just about ending a war in that narrow sense," he said. "They're about the future balance of power in the region."

Pape said the key disputes delaying progress involve issues that could determine whether Iran or the United States emerges as the dominant force in the Persian Gulf.

"Is Iran going to be in control of the Strait of Hormuz and impose tolls?" he said. "This has been an issue going on for months."

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints, carrying a significant share of global oil shipments. Control of the waterway has long been a source of tension between Tehran and Washington.

Pape pointed to recent comments from President Donald Trump rejecting the idea that Iran could collect tolls in the strategic passage.

"Just this morning President Trump [was] saying that if there's any tolls that are going to happen after Day 60, America will be charging tolls, not Iran," Pape said. "Well, you can see right away that's a big issue."

A second major sticking point, he said, is Iran's insistence on retaining enriched uranium.

"Just in the last couple of days, the president of Iran has said that Iran will continue to have this enriched uranium," Pape said, adding that Trump has publicly pushed back on that position.

He said that those disputes have remained unchanged despite ongoing diplomacy.

"Either Iran controls Hormuz or it does not," Pape said. "And either Iran is going to surrender, get out of the country that enriched uranium, or it does not."

Pape said Vance's discussions in Switzerland are focused on those same questions.

"The bottom line is that these are the two issues which essentially have been the issues for months," he said. "They will be the issues for two months."

Ultimately, the negotiations are about much more than a ceasefire, Pape argued.

"These negotiations then are about the balance of power," he said. "Who's really going to be the dominant power in the Persian Gulf? Is it going to be Iran, or is it going to be the United States? That's what's at issue here."

Because those questions remain unresolved, Pape cautioned against viewing the current moment as the conflict's conclusion.

"We are going to see a gigantic amount of uncertainty for a long time," he said.

"My analogy here for where we're at is a bit like halftime at a football game," Pape added. "The first half has played itself out. You can look at the scoreboard, but what you're really seeing is the game's not over yet, and so it's too soon to go to the postgame party."

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Michael Katz

Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.

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