University of Chicago political scientist and national security expert Robert Pape warned Sunday on Newsmax that the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be unraveling as Tehran grows more ambitious and seeks greater influence across the Persian Gulf.
Appearing on "Sunday Agenda," Pape pointed to Israel's latest strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, an area dominated by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group, as evidence that the conflict remains volatile 100 days after it began.
"The first thing to note is this is day 100 of the war," Pape said. "What you are seeing is the ceasefire is slowly coming unglued."
Israel's attack on Beirut came despite reported U.S. requests that it avoid strikes in the Lebanese capital. The attack killed two people and injured several others, according to reports.
Pape said the most significant development at the 100-day mark is not the military action itself but what it reveals about Tehran's evolving objectives.
"The biggest surprise, though, of now that we're at day 100, is that Iran's ambitions are growing," he said. "What you are seeing, bit by bit, drip by drip, is that Iran's ambitions are shifting from mere survival to gaining leverage in the Gulf."
According to Pape, Iran's increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward Israel and its actions against U.S. interests in the region suggest a broader strategy.
He cited Iran's recent strikes on U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as Kuwait International Airport, arguing that Tehran had moved beyond a proportional response strategy.
"Iran escalated up the ladder when it responded," Pape said. "It didn't just do proportionate tit-for-tat."
Pape also pointed to comments last week from senior Iranian military adviser Mohsen Rezaei, who publicly demanded financial concessions and warned of further escalation.
"Far from buckling and looking like he wanted to restart negotiations, he issued a new set of demands," Pape said, adding that Rezaei sought $24 billion for Iran and warned the country was considering expanding the conflict.
Pape, the author of "The Escalation Trap" on Substack, said Iran is no longer focused solely on preserving the regime.
"We have been stuck in the escalation trap," Pape said. "Iran is not just satisfied with the current goalposts. Iran is moving the goalposts."
While cautioning against overstating the threat, Pape said Tehran is displaying "all the behaviors and its rhetoric and its actual military behavior of growing ambition in the Gulf to gain power over the Gulf states."
"Iran is gaining ambition and it's moving beyond simply trying to survive," he said.
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