University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape said Sunday on Newsmax that he sees little chance that President Donald Trump will secure a substantially improved nuclear agreement with Iran before January, arguing that Tehran's leverage is increasing as global oil inventories decline.
"Looking ahead now, between now and, say, January, I see very little chance of some magically better deal on the uranium front," Pape said on Newsmax's "Sunday Agenda."
Pape's comments came as Trump has indicated a memorandum of understanding with Iran could potentially be signed, while Iranian officials have denied that any agreement is imminent.
"I would really want President Trump to succeed here," Pape said. "So this is not coming from a place of wanting President Trump to fail on this score. It's the other way around."
Pape said negotiations are slowing because Iran believes time is working in its favor.
"Negotiations are stalling because time is favoring Iran," he said. "Any little thing that Iran doesn't like is now going to be a reason for Iran to slow this down, stall."
According to Pape, Iran's position has strengthened since the conflict began.
"When we began this, Iran did not have that much leverage," he said. "Initially, in the first months, Iran was fighting just to survive. Well, now Iran is moving from survival to ambition."
Pape said declining global oil inventories are giving Tehran additional leverage and warned that inventory levels, rather than oil prices, are the critical factor to watch.
"People are focusing on the wrong number. They're focusing on the price of oil," he said. "What they should be focusing on is the inventory that we have left in the United States."
He said U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen from nearly 400 million barrels to about 348 million barrels and could approach a critical floor later this summer.
Pape also credited Trump with helping suppress oil prices through public messaging.
"President Trump has been brilliant in talking down the price of oil," he said. "The problem is those weeks are going to run dry. It's going to run dry in a few weeks, and you can't talk down empty."
Asked about former President Barack Obama's assessment that any new agreement is unlikely to differ significantly from the original Iran nuclear deal, Pape said he agreed.
"The facts are the facts," Pape said.
He added that neither side appears willing to accept a strategic defeat, making further escalation more likely.
"The bottom line is this is the trap," he said. "Neither side is going to accept a strategic defeat. And that leads to, unfortunately, more escalation."
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