University of Chicago political scientist and international security expert Robert Pape warned Saturday that the conflict involving Iran is entering a more dangerous phase, saying the risk of retaliation against Americans could increase in the coming weeks despite recent military exchanges easing.
Appearing on Newsmax TV's "Saturday Agenda," Pape said the war is "nowhere near over" and argued that Iran's focus is shifting from ensuring its survival to seeking revenge.
"We are heading fast towards stage three," Pape said, referring to what he described as an escalation trap in the conflict.
"The first thing I'd like to say is, I agree, this war is nowhere near over. Iran is moving from survival to ambition to revenge."
Pape said recent rhetoric from Iran should be viewed as a credible call for retaliation, warning that any threats directed at President Donald Trump could extend beyond a single target.
"It is very important to underscore what you're seeing in that statement," he said.
"That is probably going to be received highly credibly by tens of millions, if not more, in Iran and around the world as a call for revenge, not just against President Trump, but against Americans anywhere in the world."
The comments come amid continued tensions between Washington and Tehran following U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's retaliatory attacks on a U.S. military installation in Qatar.
Although both sides have avoided further direct military action in recent weeks, U.S. officials have continued monitoring for potential threats against American personnel and interests overseas.
Pape warned that the next several weeks could prove especially volatile as the conflict evolves beyond conventional military exchanges.
"We are heading toward a period in the next few weeks. It could be some of the most dangerous that we have seen in this war," he said. "And I don't mean just in the Gulf."
Instead, Pape suggested Americans should view the conflict as entering a broader phase in which the risk of retaliation may extend well beyond the Middle East.
"We need to understand this war is changing," he said. "It is not where it has been, and it is quickly becoming not just about the oil and the world's economy."
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