Final polling of likely voters in Tuesday's South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary reflects what most GOP sources who spoke to Newsmax have been saying for a week: Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pam Evette will almost certainly top the five-candidate field but likely face Attorney General Alan Wilson in a runoff.
According to a Trafalgar poll completed shortly after President Donald Trump endorsed Evette on May 29, the lieutenant governor leads Wilson 23.5% to 18.5%, followed by multimillionaire businessman Rom Reddy at 17.9%, Rep. Ralph Norman at 14.6% and Rep. Nancy Mace at 12.5%.
A Citadel poll completed this week showed Evette at 17%, Wilson and Mace at 16% each, Reddy at 14%, and Norman at 13%.
"I think the conventional wisdom still holds that it is an Evette-Wilson or Wilson-Evette race after June 9," one longtime Palmetto State Republican operative told Newsmax. "But I would not bet the farm on anything."
What surprised many state Republicans who spoke to Newsmax was how little momentum Trump's endorsement appeared to give Evette, fueling the belief that she may face a runoff and may not finish first.
In endorsing Evette on Truth Social, Trump also pointed out that "a BIG added plus" for her campaign was the possibility that Henry McMaster Jr., the son of the outgoing governor, could serve as her running mate.
It was widely anticipated that Evette would soon announce the younger McMaster, 37, an attorney who has never held office, as her running mate.
But in Republican circles, there was growing outrage over reports that a deal had been brokered by Gov. Henry McMaster, a close friend of the president and the first statewide official in the country to endorse him in 2016.
"It had all the feel of a drug deal," one Wilson supporter who requested anonymity told Newsmax.
Apparently aware of the growing opposition to his likely selection by Evette, McMaster Jr. announced two days ago that "now is simply not the right time for me to be considered for lieutenant governor."
The X-factor in the contentious gubernatorial primary is turnout. A record 250,000-plus South Carolinians have voted early or by absentee ballot, and their impact on the contest could render the polls off course.