American Conservative Union Chairman Matt Schlapp told Newsmax on Tuesday that any U.S.-Iran agreement will hold only as long as President Donald Trump is in the White House, predicting Trump may have to return to military action if Tehran reneges on terms barring support for terrorism, attacks on Israel or pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Speaking on "The Record With Greta Van Susteren," Schlapp weighed in as a purported 14-point memorandum of understanding, published by Saudi broadcaster Al-Arabiya, drew scrutiny over the absence of Israel and Iran's regional proxies.

"Sadly, the Jewish vote is a lock for the Democrats, which seems impossible," Schlapp said, suggesting the idea of a weak framework would shift Jewish voters in November.

Conservatives had made "a little bit of progress" each cycle, he said, but any reactive districts were "sadly [to shift] purple to blue."

The bigger question, he argued, is whether any signed text can constrain Tehran.

"Is there any piece of paper that the Iranian government could sign that would actually, you know, prevent them from doing terrible things in the future? And I'd say, no," Schlapp said.

"The reason why Iran will be kept in a box is because Trump is president."

Under a predecessor "like Joe Biden or Barack Obama, who draw a lines and then let the bad guys cross the lines, the ink won't be worth the paper it's written on."

Schlapp noted the agreement is not a treaty, recalling Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

"These agreements, no matter what they are, you hope people will keep their word on it, but they are not treaties," he said. "It goes from administration to administration." Senate ratification "takes a supermajority through the Senate. That's not happening. So that's what Iran is probably thinking about us, too."

He turned to former President Obama, who told ABC's "Good Morning America" it was "doubtful" any new agreement would be a significant improvement over the JCPOA.

"Democrats are sort of salivating at the notion that this deal will not be anywhere near as tough as Barack Obama's," Schlapp said. He charged Obama "got Iran on the cusp of a nuclear weapon," that the 2015 deal "had a sunset provision" and "gave [them] 150 billion bucks."

Fact-checkers noted at the time that the figure refers to Iran's frozen assets abroad, not a U.S. cash transfer, with usable liquid sums estimated at closer to $50 billion.

Democrats "want the talking point that says, our deal was so much tougher" than Trump's, Schlapp said. "And that's all the president needs to hear to get angry and go back to the table, or maybe keep bombing, and we get to use it to our advantage."

Schlapp suggested the leaked draft itself may be a trial balloon.

"These things are leaked because they're trial balloons. You want to see [how] everyone reacts," he said.

"They could change it a little bit because there's a reaction."

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