Black voters will likely provide the clearest indication of who will emerge as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, John McCarthy, who served as a White House adviser to former President Joe Biden, told Newsmax Friday.
On Newsmax's "On the Record With Greta Van Susteren," McCarthy was asked about a recent poll showing former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the potential 2028 Democrat presidential field with 19%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 17%; Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., at 13%; Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., at 13%; and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 8%.
McCarthy said the leading contenders are likely to remain among the top candidates throughout the race, even if the early front-runner ultimately changes.
"I mean, the first five or six names will probably stay the first five or six names through this process," he said. "That tends to be what history has suggested.
"But the people who end up being the front-runner early on, it's really hard to sustain that for this long period of time."
McCarthy said that if South Carolina and Nevada remain the first two states on the Democratic primary calendar, they will help shape the eventual nominee because candidates will have to appeal to key constituencies there, including Black, Latino, and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters.
"The candidates themselves are going to really have to make their case to those communities to get through this."
South Carolina was selected Friday to once again lead off the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominating schedule, likely cementing a dramatic break from decades of tradition by keeping Iowa off the top of the calendar and elevating more racially diverse states.
The decision by the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee will need to be approved by the full organization, which is scheduled to meet in August.
South Carolina or Nevada had been expected to go first, with each state aggressively campaigning for the coveted spot.
McCarthy said Black voters have historically been the strongest indicator of who will win the Democrat nomination.
"If you want to kind of get a clear picture of who's going to be our nominee, I think you can always look to where Black voters are performing," he said.
He cited the 1988 Democrat primary, when the Rev. Jesse Jackson mounted a historic campaign, as the lone modern exception.
McCarthy also pointed to President Joe Biden's 2020 campaign, noting Biden struggled in Iowa and New Hampshire before overwhelming support from Black voters in South Carolina revived his candidacy and propelled him to the nomination.
McCarthy also dismissed the idea that the Democratic Party is being driven by its most progressive wing, saying self-described socialist voices receive disproportionate media attention but represent only a small segment of the party.
"I think they're exciting. I think the media thinks it's a really good story," he said. "But outside of a square mile in Brooklyn, these policies are political nonstarters."
McCarthy served as deputy assistant to the president and senior adviser for political engagement during the Biden administration.
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