A plurality of American voters considered the U.S. war against Iran a failure, nearly half wanted Washington to end military action immediately, and barely one-third would have kept fighting until the Islamic regime in Tehran was destroyed, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey.
The poll captured voter sentiment as the conflict neared a possible resolution. President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders were moving toward the memorandum of understanding that was signed electronically Sunday and is set for formal in-person signing Friday in Switzerland.
The national poll of 1,032 likely voters, conducted June 11, 14, and 15, found 44% believed the war that began in February had been successful, with 19% calling it very successful.
But 48% said the war had been unsuccessful, and 27% labeled it not at all successful.
Asked to choose between ending military action immediately and continuing "until the Islamic regime in Iran is completely destroyed," 49% favored an immediate stop, 35% backed regime change, and 16% were not sure.
The shift since the spring is sharp.
The same pollster reported in mid-March that 61% of likely voters called the war successful, including 35% very successful, while 29% said it had not been successful and 12% called it not at all successful.
The decline in the share calling the war successful, from 61% to 44%, marks a 17-point swing against the campaign in roughly 90 days, with those who called it very successful cut nearly in half.
Rasmussen began fielding after Trump ended an earlier ceasefire and ordered renewed strikes, saying Iran had "taken too long to negotiate a deal," but before Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf electronically signed the MOU on Sunday.
On the decision to tear up the truce, 45% approved, including 29% who strongly approved, while 46% disapproved and 33% strongly disapproved. The split is almost even, but the intensity tilts against the president.
The partisan divide is wider than the headline numbers suggest.
Among Republicans, 75% approved of renewing the strikes, compared with 24% of Democrats and 39% of independents; 53% of Democrats strongly disapproved.
On regime change, 58% of Republicans wanted to fight until the Tehran government was destroyed, against 18% of Democrats and 31% of independents.
Among 2024 Trump voters, 71% called the war a success; among Kamala Harris voters, only 20% agreed.
Demographic splits show a similar pattern.
Men were more likely than women — 49% to 38% — to call the war a success.
Voters 65 and older were the most willing to fight on for regime change and the most likely to call the campaign unsuccessful.
Across racial groups, support for immediate withdrawal ran from 47% among white voters to 58% among other minorities, with Black voters at 51% and Hispanic voters at 48%, the latter being the most likely group to call the war successful.
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points at 95% confidence; subgroup margins are larger.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.