Days after the Republican primary for governor of Iowa produced an outcome few, if any, saw coming, so-called experts and pols of both parties are asking just why political newcomer Zach Lahn defeated the much-favored Rep. Randy Feenstra.
A three-term congressman, Feenstra was always the favorite for the GOP nod to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Polls almost universally showed Feenstra, 57, topping the five-candidate field.
The proverbial "icing on the cake" was President Donald Trump's endorsement — considered the gold standard in today's Republican primaries — a few days before the Tuesday election.
But it was not to be. In a dramatic upset, businessman and first-time candidate Lahn eked out the nomination over Feenstra by 37.8% to 37%, or 1,652 votes.
Lahn strongly defies the norm for Hawkeye State governors for the past century, most of whom had held public office before their election and were already familiar political figures to voters.
In contrast, Lahn's political activity was primarily in the conservative citizens' group Americans for Prosperity. He deployed roughly $2.5 million of his own money and raised about $1.2 million from other donors.
The fledgling candidate also had the backing of the late Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA as well as the Make America Healthy Movement, which has clashed with the Trump administration over its use of pesticides.
"Zach really touched people when he pointed out that Iowa was No. 1 for cancer rates and needed to improve its water quality to be the best place to live and work," Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of The Family Leader and the state's leading evangelical conservative, told Newsmax.
But Feenstra also made mistakes.
"Feenstra refused to debate," observed Kim Schmett, former chair of the Polk County GOP, which includes Des Moines.
"He rarely attended public events. He turned down invitations from Republican county chairs to attend their events, and that really upset them," he continued.
"In fairness, he did end up having to stay in Washington for critical votes on occasion. But he just really did not seem interested in campaigning."
Schmett's view was echoed by Vander Plaats, who pointed out that "Randy fared poorly in his own congressional district and lost counties such as Lyon, Plymouth, O'Brien — and Pella, which has a strong concentration of voters of Dutch heritage, just like Randy and me."
Pella is a city in Marion County, Iowa.
Vander Plaats also noted that "[t]he impression of an aloof and relaxed campaign just doesn't sell in Iowa."
"You can't run a [Joe] Biden campaign and sit in the basement. You have to energize the base, as Rick Santorum did in 2012 and Ted Cruz did in '16," he said, referring to their victories in the Iowa Republican caucuses.
In a race that is sure to attract national attention, Lahn will square off against the Democrat nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand.
Hailed as one of the Democrats' hottest properties in the mold of the young Bill Clinton, Sand, 43, is a former model and scion of a wealthy family.
"He's similar in his views to [2024 Democrat vice presidential nominee] Tim Walz but a far more compelling campaigner," said Vander Plaats. "But we've got the best candidate with which to defeat him."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.