President Donald Trump is likely to continue responding with military force to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while seeking to avoid a broader conflict, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told Newsmax on Wednesday.
On "The Record With Greta Van Susteren," Bremmer said Trump believes the United States must respond after Iran allegedly targeted several vessels, including ships belonging to U.S. allies, transiting the strategic waterway.
"President Trump certainly feels like he needs to hit back against the Iranians, now that the Iranians have taken shots at several ships, including ships of U.S. allies, attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz," Bremmer said.
The attacks undermine an understanding between Washington and Tehran that called for free navigation through the strait, he added.
"The memorandum of understanding that was signed by the United States and Iran said free and unfettered passage of that strait," Bremmer said. "So if the Iranians are going to take shots at those ships, the United States has to hit back."
As a result, Bremmer said, any ceasefire between the two sides is effectively on hold, at least with respect to U.S. retaliation.
"That means the ceasefire is suspended, at least insofar as the Americans want to retaliate," he said. "That happened yesterday. I have no doubt it's going to continue to happen today."
Though he expects further U.S. strikes, Bremmer said he does not believe Trump intends to launch a broader military campaign against Iran.
"But that's very different from Trump restarting the war," he said. "He has also said that he doesn't want the war to restart."
Bremmer said Trump appears to believe the United States has limited military options that would achieve decisive objectives without exposing Washington to high costs.
According to Bremmer, the United States lacks attractive options for seizing Iran's oil infrastructure, occupying Kharg Island — a major Iranian oil export terminal — or toppling the country's government without incurring substantial economic and geopolitical consequences.
"He doesn't expect that because the United States doesn't have great options for taking the oil, for occupying Kharg Island, or for obliterating the Iranian regime without taking on risks, both economic and geostrategic, that President Trump heretofore has considered to be unacceptably large for the United States," Bremmer said.
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