Six polling and political experts interviewed by The New York Times said they believe Democrats are on track to regain control of the House in this year's midterm elections but will likely fall just short of winning back the Senate.

Most pointed to President Donald Trump's weak approval ratings as a headwind for Republicans, while arguing structural advantages in Senate races and congressional redistricting could limit Democrat gains.

"Donald Trump's dismal approval ratings would suggest a massive House defeat for the president's party," New Republic writer Perry Bacon told the Times. "But polarization and the sorting of the electorate, as well as the seats Republicans gained through redistricting, will minimize GOP House losses."

Bacon predicted Democrats would gain only three Senate seats — one shy of the four needed to secure a majority.

Carlos Odio, founder of Equis Research, also forecast a Democrat House takeover but said he does not expect a broad Democrat wave.

"My informed suspicion is that groups that swung the most toward Trump in 2024 haven't entirely turned against his party yet," Odio told the Times.

As a result, he said, Democrats are unlikely to have enough competitive opportunities to capture the Senate.

Patrick Ruffini, a pollster at Echelon Insights, also argued that a shrinking number of competitive House districts will prevent Democrats from translating their generic-ballot advantage into a commanding majority.

"Without mid-decade redistricting, the GOP would be staring down a 25- to 30-seat loss," Ruffini told the Times. "Still, the redrawn maps don't insulate them from losing their majority."

Nate Silver, founder of the Silver Bulletin, also predicted Democrats will retake the House but said Maine has become a more difficult Senate pickup opportunity after Graham Platner's departure from the race.

"There's not much polling on non-Platner alternatives versus Collins, and any bridge burning by him on the way out could make it hard to unify around the new nominee," Silver told the Times.

Charlotte Swasey, author of the Medium Data newsletter, said Democrats' path to a Senate majority depends on defeating Sen. Susan Collins in Maine or pulling off victories in several states that Trump carried comfortably.

"The polling is so patchy that it's hard to know which of those seats might flip," Swasey told the Times.

Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at UCLA, said she expects Democrats to make only modest gains in the House.

"If Republicans are dismayed, they probably won't vote for a Democrat — but maybe they stay home instead," Vavreck said. "There just aren't that many swing voters, but the few who remain are deciding elections. If Trump's approval rating improves among them, so will Republicans' prospects."

Among the races Bacon said he is watching most closely is the Ohio Senate contest between incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown.

"I am intrigued, but still doubtful, that a Democrat can win Ohio again," Bacon told the Times. "And while I respect Brown, in this era of skepticism about Washington and career politicians, I am surprised a retread remains so competitive."

Silver said Iowa's open Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, and Democrat Josh Turek also bears watching.

"Iowa has been a little bit under the radar," Silver told the Times. "But sometimes being below the radar is helpful. The race won't attract as much money as, say, Texas, and Turek might not be as easy for Republicans to typecast as James Talarico."