Former Iranian Americans for Liberty Executive Director Bryan Leib told Newsmax on Wednesday that "it's OK for people to be cautiously optimistic" about the Trump administration's memorandum of understanding with Iran, but he remains "skeptical."
Appearing on Newsmax's "Wake Up America," Leib said the proposed U.S.-Iran MOU could prove "monumental" if President Donald Trump ultimately secures a lasting agreement with Tehran.
However, he cautioned that an MOU is not a final deal and warned that the Islamic Republic's decades-long record of sponsoring terrorism leaves plenty of room for concern.
"We're dealing with the world's foremost sponsor of terrorism that has been playing these games with the world for the last 47 years," Leib said. "There's still a lot of runway to go here."
The Trump administration and Iran are expected to formally sign the memorandum in Geneva on Friday.
Reports indicate the framework would extend a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch additional negotiations over sanctions relief, regional security, and Iran's nuclear program.
Several key details remain unresolved, including how Tehran's nuclear ambitions will be addressed.
Leib questioned suggestions that Iran's leadership has become more moderate, arguing that the same ruling establishment remains firmly in control.
"Old regime, new regime, it's all the same people here," he said. "The IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] is in control. They're the ones that are calling the shots."
The foreign policy analyst pointed to Iran's continued support for proxy groups and aggressive regional behavior as evidence that the regime has not fundamentally changed.
Leib was especially doubtful that Iran's leaders would ever voluntarily abandon their pursuit of nuclear capabilities.
"I just don't see any world that we're living in where the IRGC is going to give up their nuclear ambitions," he said. "I don't believe that they are ever, ever going to relinquish their desire to have a nuclear weapon."
That skepticism reflects a broader concern among conservatives and U.S. allies in the region.
While Trump has said the emerging agreement would prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, details of any future nuclear restrictions have not yet been released publicly.
Israel and several European leaders have also expressed caution as negotiations continue.
Leib said any lasting peace will depend not only on diplomatic agreements but on whether Iran's ruling clerics and the IRGC are willing to abandon the ideology that has guided the regime for decades.
"We'll see what happens on Friday," Leib said.
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