President Donald Trump's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appears to be working, as transits show the strongest signs yet of returning to normal operations.
Commercial shipping is steadily increasing under the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire, easing fears of prolonged global oil supply disruptions and driving crude prices lower.
New maritime data shows vessel traffic through the strategic waterway has more than quadrupled over the past week as shipping companies cautiously resume voyages through the Persian Gulf.
According to maritime intelligence platform Signal, the number of traceable daily voyages entering and leaving the Gulf increased from just one or two ships during most of the conflict to eight vessels by July 1, based on a seven-day moving average.
But the number of ships moving through with their transponders off is believed to be considerably higher. One study estimated that as many as 40 ships a day transited the strait over the past week.
While still well below prewar traffic levels, the rebound marks a significant improvement in confidence among commercial operators.
Before the conflict erupted, approximately 135 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz each day, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world's traded oil and liquefied natural gas.
The increase in shipping is already having a measurable impact on global energy markets.
Brent crude oil has fallen back to roughly its prewar levels for the first time since fighting began, as traders increasingly believe the worst-case supply disruptions may have been avoided.
The decline reflects growing confidence that Gulf producers — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait — will once again be able to move oil to international markets with fewer interruptions.
Several major shipping companies confirmed the improvement.
German container giant Hapag-Lloyd said four vessels previously stranded inside the Gulf have now exited safely, while Danish shipping leader Maersk reported two of its ships successfully transited the Strait during the past week.
Much of the recent traffic has consisted of oil tankers.
According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, total vessel movements — including so-called "dark voyages," in which ships disable GPS tracking to reduce the risk of being targeted — rose to 258 transits during the week ending June 28.
That compares with just 41 voyages during the opening week of the crisis in March.
Many outbound tankers are carrying crude that had been loaded before the war and stored offshore while operators waited for safer conditions.
Iran has also accelerated exports.
Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has exported approximately 40 million barrels of oil since the U.S. lifted its naval blockade, claiming the country has been able to sell its crude at prices roughly 20% above prewar levels.
More than 60 of the recent tanker voyages have reportedly involved Iranian oil exports, taking advantage of temporary sanctions relief granted under the ceasefire agreement.
Exports from neighboring Gulf producers are also recovering.
Several Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) tankers successfully transited the Strait this week using a southern shipping corridor that hugs Oman's coastline under air-defense protection reportedly provided by U.S. and Omani forces.
Despite the improving outlook, significant dangers remain.
The International Maritime Organization estimates Iran laid approximately 80 naval mines in the Strait during the conflict. Those mines have yet to be cleared, preventing the two principal international shipping lanes from fully reopening.
Instead, commercial vessels are relying on alternative routes.
Some ships are using a route designated by Iran that requires approval from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while others are sailing closer to Oman's territorial waters under enhanced security.
Industry officials caution that today's increased traffic reflects not only improving security but also economic necessity.
"It's really difficult to say whether it's growing confidence or whether it's risk takers," Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the global shipowners' association BIMCO, told the Financial Times. "At some point shipowners are willing to take that extra risk to get their ship out."
The improving security picture is also reducing transportation costs.
Spot charter rates for very large crude carriers on the Hormuz route, which surged to nearly $500,000 per day on June 23 amid peak uncertainty, have since fallen to approximately $294,000 per day as more vessels become available and operators regain confidence.
Marine insurance costs have also declined dramatically.
According to insurance broker WTW, war-risk premiums have fallen to roughly 2% of a vessel's value, down from about 7% immediately after the ceasefire took effect, significantly lowering the cost of transporting oil through the Gulf.
For energy markets, the reopening of the Strait represents a major psychological shift.
Just weeks ago, investors feared a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could choke off nearly 20% of global oil supplies, potentially sending crude prices well above $100 per barrel and reigniting inflation worldwide.
Instead, increasing tanker traffic, recovering Gulf exports, declining shipping costs, and lower insurance premiums are restoring confidence that one of the world's most important energy corridors is gradually returning to business.