University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, one of America's best-known scholars on air power, coercion, and military strategy, is warning that President Donald Trump has entered what he calls a "wicked escalation trap" with Iran — one in which Tehran, rather than Washington, now holds the strategic advantage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking in an extended interview with journalist Rachel Blevins on her YouTube program, Pape argued that despite four months of conflict and an U.S.-led bombing campaign, the balance of power has shifted in Iran's favor rather than America's.

Pape is no stranger to military strategy. A professor of political science at the University of Chicago, he has spent decades studying coercive air campaigns and authored the influential book Bombing to Win.

He has also taught targeting strategy to the U.S. Air Force and has long argued that bombing campaigns designed to force regime change often produce the opposite result.

According to Pape, recent events have reinforced that conclusion.

"The attacker launches an attack that tactically succeeds but weakens its strategic position," Pape said. "We are caught in a wicked escalation trap."

Iran 'Holds All the Cards'

Central to Pape's argument is his belief that Iran emerged from the conflict stronger politically because the Islamic Republic survived the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign.

"Iran survived, and that changes everything," he said.

Borrowing President Trump's own phrase from last year's exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Pape argued that "Iran has all the cards."

Rather than deterring Tehran, he contended, months of bombing, leadership strikes, and economic pressure have convinced Iranian leaders they must preserve and expand their newly acquired leverage.

That leverage, he said, rests largely on the Strait of Hormuz.

Contrary to American assumptions, Pape argued that Iran — not the United States — effectively controls the world's most important oil chokepoint.

"If you want to cross the Strait of Hormuz, there's one country to call," he said. "It's not the United States. It's not Israel. It's Iran."

Limited Attacks, Global Impact

Pape pointed to Iran's recent attacks on just two commercial ships as evidence of Tehran's growing influence.

Although only two vessels were struck during the week, he argued that the attacks were sufficient to dramatically reduce commercial traffic once again through the Strait.

According to Pape, Iran no longer needs to launch massive attacks or close the waterway entirely.

Instead, occasional strikes are enough to keep shipping companies nervous, insurance costs elevated, and global oil markets under pressure.

"They only hit two ships," he observed. "That was enough to dramatically reduce the traffic."

As strategic petroleum reserves continue to decline worldwide, Pape believes Iran's leverage will only increase over the coming months.

Lebanon Remains Flashpoint

Another major obstacle, Pape argued, involves Lebanon.

He claimed the United States cannot realistically enforce provisions of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) guaranteeing Lebanon's territorial integrity while Israel continues military operations and seeks to maintain positions in southern Lebanon.

Pape argued that Secretary of State Marco Rubio's reported negotiations between Israel and Lebanon directly conflict with portions of the MOU.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues rebuilding its drone capabilities with Iranian assistance.

Pape warned that inexpensive first-person-view drones could eventually number in the thousands, posing a growing threat to northern Israel.

He described Israel as the wild card in the broader regional conflict, arguing Israeli security concerns could trigger additional escalation regardless of Washington's preferences.

Buying Off Iran?

During the interview, Blevins questioned whether the United States believed financial incentives — including discussions of reconstruction assistance and frozen assets — could persuade Iran to compromise under the MOU.

Pape dismissed the idea.

"This is not a business deal," he said.

Power — not money — is Iran's primary objective, he argued, making financial inducements unlikely to produce lasting concessions.

He compared the strategy to trying to "buy off" a country whose leadership had survived assassination attempts and a sustained bombing campaign.

Trump's MAGA Dilemma

Pape also suggested President Trump faces an increasingly difficult political balancing act as his party seeks to maintain control of Congress in the midterm elections.

On one hand, portions of Trump's MAGA coalition favor stronger military action against Iran.

On the other, many conservatives who supported Trump's "America First" foreign policy oppose another prolonged Middle East conflict.

Pape argued Trump must avoid appearing weak while simultaneously preventing a wider war that could damage the U.S. economy heading into the midterm elections.

"It's a terrible dilemma," Pape said, warning that any further disruption to Gulf oil exports could quickly raise fuel prices and intensify political pressure at home.

Pape noted that Iran's Fars News Agency has openly discussed Iran developing a nuclear weapon, which he said becomes more likely as time passes and Tehran's regional influence grows.

He predicted Iran's period of "maximum leverage" could extend through the fall as shrinking oil inventories amplify the economic consequences of even limited maritime disruptions.

Even if the Strait reopened fully, Pape argued it would still take more than a year for oil supplies and prices to normalize.