Political scientist Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago and author of the "Escalation Trap" Substack, argued that the newly released U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) does not end the crisis in the Persian Gulf but instead creates a new and potentially more dangerous phase of confrontation.

Pape, one of the most prominent scholars of international security and coercive diplomacy, has spent months analyzing what he called an "escalation trap" between Washington and Tehran.

Following publication of the official 14-point MOU, he said a previously overlooked provision reveals a critical deadline embedded within the agreement.

In his recent Substack essay titled "Day 60: The Hidden Deadline Inside the Official Trump-Iran Agreement," Pape focused on Paragraph 5 of the agreement, which states that Iran will facilitate the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz "with no charge for 60 days only."

That language, Pape noted, was missing from leaked drafts covered widely by the media.

According to Pape, that language transforms what appears to be a permanent settlement into a temporary armistice.

"The agreement itself creates a new deadline," he wrote. "Once the sixty-day period expires, Iran and the Gulf states are scheduled to negotiate the future administration and maritime services of the Strait of Hormuz."

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, carrying roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil.

President Donald Trump has insisted that the Iranians will never collect "tolls" for passage through the strait.

Iranian media have claimed that the U.S. has agreed, in principle, to allow them to charge "fees" for transit.

Pape argued that Iran emerged from the recent conflict with increased leverage because it now possesses significant influence over access to the waterway.

In interviews with YouTube podcasts "Breaking Points" and "Mario Nawfal," Pape expanded on that argument, contending that the MOU grants Iran an opportunity to convert military survival into long-term political and economic power.

"President Trump lost the bombing. Now he's at great risk for losing the deal," Pape said during his "Breaking Points" appearance.

He argued that Iran "came out of the bombing with power" and is now positioned to gain even more influence through the agreement.

Pape pointed to several provisions in the MOU, including sanctions relief, the resumption of Iranian oil exports, and the prospect of foreign investment.

He estimated Iran could receive tens of billions of dollars in economic benefits during the first 60 days of the agreement.

His central concern is that the temporary Hormuz arrangement creates what he called a new "escalation trap."

If negotiations over the future administration of the strait fail after the 60-day period, Washington could face an uncomfortable choice: accept greater Iranian influence over a critical maritime corridor or risk renewed confrontation.

"Rejecting further concessions risks returning immediately to confrontation," Pape wrote. "Accepting Iranian fees or administrative authority, however, risks appearing to ratify Iranian leverage."

Pape also said he believes the next two months will be decisive because global oil inventories remain vulnerable.

During his "Breaking Points" interview, he argued that while oil shipments may resume, it will take weeks before supplies rebuild and inventories recover.

That, he said, could increase Iran's bargaining power as the deadline approaches.

Looking beyond the immediate negotiations, Pape predicts Tehran will seek broader strategic objectives, including reducing the U.S. military presence in the region and expanding its influence across the Middle East.

He described the current moment as a "period of maximum leverage" for Iran and warned that the country is pursuing what he viewed as a path toward regional primacy.

During his interview on "Mario Nawfal," Pape said Iran has a three-to-five-year window to consolidate influence before alternative energy routes and pipeline projects diminish the strategic importance of Hormuz.

Pape also cautioned that Israel may react aggressively if it perceives Iran's position strengthening.

Speaking with Nawfal, he said he would not be surprised if Israel "lashes out" because it sees itself confronting a declining strategic position.

Pape argues that Israel will increasingly view the agreement as a strategic defeat and therefore may resort to disruptive actions designed to prevent Iran from consolidating the gains he said he believes the MOU provides.

He repeatedly described the MOU as making Israel a "declining power" while portraying Iran as an ascending regional power.

Israel will face strong incentives to undermine the agreement before Iran can convert its new leverage into lasting regional influence, he said.

One of Pape's most striking warnings concerns targeted assassinations.

During the Nawfal interview, he said, "I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lash out. And I mean they lash out to try to kill more leaders in Tehran, literally to kill the foreign minister who's doing the negotiating."

Pape also expresses skepticism that verbal pressure from Trump would be enough to stop Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Pape envisions a period of heightened instability rather than calm implementation of the agreement.

He suggests Israel could engage in actions designed to slow, complicate, or derail Iran's rise.

Ultimately, Pape argued that the true test of whether the crisis has ended will not be diplomatic language but military realities on the ground.

If Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is not challenged by the U.S., Tehran will dominate the region for years to come.