Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 5 points in a new poll of the Texas U.S. Senate race, 45% to 40%.

The survey from Texas Public Opinion Research, reported by the Texas Tribune, marks the Austin state representative's largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.

Paxton's 40% is his lowest share in any post-runoff poll after other surveys had shown Republicans consolidating behind him.

TPOR is directed by Democrat strategist Luke Warford, who is also a founding partner of a political action committee focused on building the Democratic Party's campaign infrastructure in Texas.

Some conservatives have cast doubt on the poll's validity given those ties, noting the political action committee's largest donor has given $500,000 to a pro-Talarico super PAC this cycle.

TPOR's previous poll, taken after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, had found Talarico leading 47% to 44%.

A June poll from the New York Times and Siena College found the race tied at 47%, with Talarico winning just 5% of Republicans.

The new TPOR poll found Talarico winning 7% of Republicans, while another 12% were undecided. Only 1% of Democrats said they would back Paxton.

Talarico led among independents, 43% to 23%, with 29% undecided.

Talarico also led among voters without a college degree, 45% to 36%, a group that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and nationally and one that Paxton led by 21 points in TPOR's May poll.

In 2024, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz beat Democrat Colin Allred by 18 points among non-college-educated Texans, and Cruz still won that group by 6 points in 2018.

Paxton led among white voters, 53% to 33%, while Talarico led among Black voters, 71% to 8%, and Latino voters, 66% to 20%.

Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years, but they believe Trump's approval ratings, Paxton's legal troubles, and Talarico's fundraising could deliver a breakthrough.

Republicans say they still expect to consolidate support behind Paxton as the primary fades from memory.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race "Lean Republican."

Roughly 14% of voters remain undecided, with 19% of that group leaning toward Paxton and 10% leaning toward Talarico, while two-thirds said they were truly on the fence.

TPOR surveyed 1,048 likely voters July 15-17 and reported a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.