Iran Bets Time Is on Its Side After Fighting Pauses

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Iran is projecting confidence following a pause in nearly two weeks of fighting with the United States, insisting it has not agreed to a ceasefire and signaling it is in no hurry to return to direct negotiations with the Trump administration, The New York Times reported on Monday.

Although airstrikes and explosions have subsided in recent days, Iranian officials have rejected suggestions that Tehran is eager for diplomacy, instead arguing the Islamic Republic emerged from the conflict in a position of strength and has leverage over President Donald Trump.

The messaging reflects what analysts say is Tehran's strategy of using uncertainty over renewed hostilities to pressure Washington while pursuing a key post-war objective: international recognition of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian military officials have portrayed the pause in fighting as a strategic victory.

Ramazan Sharif, the former spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said Sunday that Iran's "enemy" had "faced strategic defeat at every step," according to Iranian state media.

Iranian diplomats have struck a more measured tone but likewise have shown little interest in immediate negotiations with Washington.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has maintained that Iran's diplomatic efforts are focused on Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz rather than direct talks with the U.S.

The narrow waterway remains central to Tehran's strategy after Iran effectively shut the vital shipping route following U.S. and Israeli strikes earlier this year. The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making it one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints in the world.

Iran is seeking international recognition of its role in the waterway, a demand the U.S. has thus far refused to accept.

Baghaei has also continued to place responsibility for the conflict on Washington, describing the U.S. military campaign as "a quagmire they themselves created" and arguing the United States is now dealing with the consequences of its own actions.

The comments underscore Tehran's broader effort to portray itself as holding the stronger negotiating position despite months of military conflict and mounting economic pressure.

Gregory Brew, senior Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, said Iran's leadership believes it can withstand economic pain and military pressure longer than the Trump administration can tolerate a prolonged standoff.

"They believe that time is on their side, that they can absorb pain and pressure more successfully than Donald Trump can, and that ultimately he will agree to a deal that fits their demands, without any concessions from their side," Brew told The New York Times.

Analysts caution, however, that the absence of active fighting does not represent a lasting peace.

With no formal ceasefire in place and no comprehensive settlement under negotiation, hostilities could resume at any time. Iran also continues to face wartime destruction, economic deterioration and the effects of a continuing U.S. naval blockade, while the earlier fighting sent global oil prices sharply higher before markets stabilized after combat subsided.

Brew warned that Tehran's strategy could ultimately backfire if Trump refuses to recognize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Otherwise, Trump is going to go back to airstrikes, clearly his preferred form of diplomacy, to try and force them to back down, doing more damage to Iran's battered economy and remaining military capabilities," Brew said.

Brian Freeman

Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.

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