House Democrat leaders are absorbing a second straight primary defeat for a candidate they backed, as Maine state Auditor Matt Dunlap edged out Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Maine, in a ranked-choice runoff for the open 2nd District seat.

The result, certified by the Maine Secretary of State's office early Friday, hands the party's campaign arm its second loss this month after California progressive Randy Villegas knocked off Assembly Member Jasmeet Bains on June 9, and it has reopened a fight over how aggressively national Democrats should intervene before voters weigh in.

Dunlap finished with 35,924 votes, or 52%, to Baldacci's 32,555, or 48%, after three rounds of ranked-choice tabulation.

Baldacci led the first two rounds; former congressional staffer Jordan Wood was eliminated in the second, and his second-choice support broke heavily for Dunlap, a former secretary of state running on Medicare for All and a lower cost of living.

Dunlap will face former Gov. Paul LePage, R-Maine, in a district President Trump carried by nine points in 2024 and that forecasters now rate as a top GOP pickup opportunity.

Baldacci had been added in early May to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" program, a roster meant to channel staff, training, and fundraising help to nominees seen as best positioned to flip GOP-held seats.

The DCCC's current Red to Blue page no longer lists Baldacci or Bains and now features Villegas in CA-22, alongside Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania, Bale Dalton in Florida, Johnny Garcia in Texas, and Marlene Galan-Woods in Arizona.

The pattern of losses is sharpening a debate inside the caucus.

Axios, citing data from ad tracker AdImpact, reported that the party spent roughly $135,000 on ads supporting Bains and $7,500 on ads backing Baldacci, while an outside group called Real Change PAC, which Democrats say has Republican ties, spent about $500,000 attacking Baldacci.

Progressive challengers turned those interventions against the party's picks: Dunlap ran ads branding Baldacci as a Washington puppet, and Villegas's campaign labeled Bains as the DCCC's handpicked candidate in a late-May release.

DCCC officials are defending the strategy, blaming Republican-aligned outside groups for muddying the primary field and insisting the caucus remains focused on retaking the House majority in November.

Dunlap's campaign argues the opposite, casting Baldacci's defeat as a rebuke by Maine voters of out-of-state spending.

Rep. Analilia Mejia, D-N.J., who beat establishment-backed rivals in a February special primary to replace now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), captured the grassroots mood in remarks to Axios, saying "everyday voters are so tired of what feels rigged."

The dynamic has drawn comparisons to the Tea Party wave that battered Republican incumbents and party-backed favorites in the early 2010s.

With ME-02 leaning Republican, a recount window still open under Maine law and additional contested primaries ahead in Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania, House Democrats are heading into the summer with their candidate-selection model under the harshest scrutiny it has faced this cycle.