Defense contractors cannot replenish the U.S. weapons stockpile as quickly as the Trump administration wants, even if Congress approves President Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion defense spending request, according to a report by The Hill.
Executives at major defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, RTX, Northrop Grumman, Honeywell, and BAE Systems, estimate it will take three to four years to significantly increase production of Patriot missiles despite pressure from the White House to quadruple output of advanced weapons systems.
"It's going to take two to four years to replenish" systems such as the Patriot missile, Tomahawk cruise missile, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system, Jerry McGinn, director of the Center for the Industrial Base at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Hill.
"The problem is these systems, they're really, really great, but they were not designed for producibility, they were designed for performance," McGinn said. "They're not really built to be made at scale. They're essentially handmade in some ways."
Trump last week met with executives from Honeywell, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin to discuss expanding weapons production.
Two people briefed on the meeting told Reuters it lasted longer than expected because each executive was given time to speak.
The sources said Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg at times pushed back on industry claims about manufacturing progress, citing delays in key weapons programs.
One source said the administration's initial message to executives was, "You're not doing enough."
By the end of the meeting, however, the tone had shifted toward cooperation, with officials saying the goal was to "get on a war footing" and work together to accelerate production.
Pentagon negotiators are pressing contractors to move faster, with tentative production agreements reached earlier this year forming the basis of those efforts.
Those agreements include a deal with Lockheed Martin to triple production of Patriot interceptors and quadruple production of THAAD interceptors, which are used to shoot down ballistic missiles.
Separate multiyear agreements with RTX are intended to increase production of Tomahawk cruise missiles and AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. The agreements, announced as framework deals, have not yet been converted into contracts.
Five defense industry executives, speaking on condition of anonymity, welcomed the agreements but told Reuters that Congress must first appropriate funding before companies can invest more heavily in parts, equipment, and manufacturing capacity.
They said investing before receiving government payments under the agreements would reduce free cash flow and could hurt earnings in the second half of the year.
Trump signed an executive order in January directing agencies to identify contractors that are underperforming on government contracts while continuing to distribute profits to shareholders.
Katherine Thompson, a former Trump administration official who is now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, said publicly available data suggest it could take years for the United States to replenish its weapons stockpiles.
Based on available information, she said, inventories are unlikely to return to prewar levels before the early 2030s.
"Those timelines are not something that the defense contractors are giving," Thompson told The Hill. "But I think at a minimum we can say we're not going to be back to prewar levels until, based on the data that's out there, the early 2030s."
Reuters contributed to this report.