Federal border agents are on pace to encounter more than 12,000 people on the FBI's terrorist watch list during fiscal year 2026, roughly 16 times the highest annual total recorded during the Biden administration, according to a Washington Examiner analysis of U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
The report found the sharp increase does not appear to reflect a surge in threats from groups such as ISIS or al-Qaida.
Instead, current and former government officials, immigration analysts, and the Department of Homeland Security attribute the rise primarily to President Donald Trump's decision to designate at least 16 Western Hemisphere cartels and gangs as foreign terrorist organizations during his second term.
Those designations automatically place members of the organizations, as well as some associates, on the FBI's Terrorist Screening Database.
"By properly identifying these groups as foreign terrorist organizations and having operational control of the border, CBP has recorded a significant increase in terrorism-related encounters at the border," a DHS spokesperson said.
According to the analysis, CBP encountered 736 people on the terrorist watch list in fiscal 2023, then more than 4,000 in fiscal 2025.
During the first eight months of fiscal 2026, agents and officers recorded 8,195 encounters, putting the agency on pace for approximately 12,292 by Sept. 30.
Most of those encounters occurred at official ports of entry, with the majority now taking place along the southern border.
Immigration experts cautioned against interpreting the figures as evidence that more international terrorists are attempting to enter the United States.
Theresa Cardinal Brown, a former senior CBP official and immigration policy analyst, said many of those now appearing on the watch list are linked to newly designated cartels or gangs rather than traditional terrorist organizations.
"I don't think that is the right interpretation of these numbers," Brown told the outlet.
"I think these are people who are from newly designated organizations."
Todd Bensman, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation who recently served at the National Counterterrorism Center, similarly said only a small percentage of the total likely involves Islamist extremists.
He urged the Trump administration to release a breakdown separating cartel- and gang-related encounters from those involving groups such as ISIS or al-Qaida.
Analysts also said declining illegal border crossings have allowed Border Patrol to devote more resources to enforcement, increasing the likelihood of detecting and apprehending people attempting to evade authorities.
Others argued the increase is largely an accounting change rather than evidence of a growing terrorist threat.
David Bier of the Cato Institute said the watch list includes U.S. citizens and reflects expanded terrorist designations more than a change in migration patterns.
Former DHS official Andrew Meehan noted the statistics create a political balancing act for the administration, which has touted historically low illegal crossings while also highlighting increased watch list encounters as evidence of aggressive border enforcement.
He said the figures demonstrate CBP's ability to identify and stop individuals of concern but could also reinforce perceptions of ongoing border vulnerabilities.