On the menu today: Catching up on how that memorandum of understanding is holding up, a dozen days after President Trump signed it; sorting out the genuine from the unverifiable good news for the Ukrainians in their defense against the Russian invasion; and a couple of National Review Institute events you won’t want to miss.

An Update on the Memorandum of Mis-Understanding

You may recall that one week ago, this newsletter offered an extremely skeptical assessment of the memorandum of understanding, concluding that if the terms of the MOU were met — particularly the U.S. pledge to “develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran” — it amounted to an American defeat in the war.

President Trump personally signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran during a dinner with French President Macron at the Palace of Versailles on June 17.

Since then:

• June 20: The Iranian regime declared the Strait of Hormuz was closed, in response to what it called “continuous violations of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon and the merciless killing and displacement of hundreds of thousands of the oppressed people of this land.” Despite the Iranian declaration, according to U.S. Central Command, 55 merchant ships transited the strait that day. That’s the good news. But the bad news followed quickly.
• June 25: An Iranian drone struck the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely as it was traveling through the southern corridor in the Strait.
• June 26: “U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites after Iran hit M/V Ever Lovely on June 25 with a one-way attack drone.”
• June 26: Iran had agreed, “Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa.” Iranian senior military adviser Dr. Mohsen Rezaee tells NewsNation, “We must establish insurance mechanisms so that if incidents occur, ships that encounter problems are covered to reduce their risk. And when we provide all of this, these costs cannot come out of the pockets of the Iranian people. These costs must be collected from those who are transporting oil through this strait.”
• The same day, the government of Oman told European officials, “There’s no way of going back to the pre-war status quo with the Strait of Hormuz and transiting ships may have to be charged some fees.”
• June 27: “The Greek-owned tanker Kiku (300,866 dwt) registered in Panama, was hit early on Saturday, June 27. It had loaded at the Al Shaheen Offshore Terminal in Qatar and was bound for Singapore more than two-million barrels of crude oil, says U.S. Central Command.”
• June 27: “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says its naval and aerospace forces carried out a joint missile and drone operation targeting what it described as US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.”
• Later that day, U.S. Central Command announced, “In direct response to continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping. U.S. military aircraft targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities.”
• June 28: IRGC-affiliated Fars News wrote in a commentary, “Iran has no choice but to obtain a nuclear bomb to remove the military option against the country during the transition to a new world order.”

Also Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran is assuming sole authority over the strait. “‘The management and full restoration of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s responsibility,’ Araghchi said Sunday, according to state media. ‘No other country or entity has any responsibility or authority in this matter.’”

In the span of little more than a week, the Iranian regime has broken just about every promise it made in the memorandum of understanding. Not only did the Iranians sign a document promising the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts” and “not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other,” they also agreed to “refrain from the threat or use of force against each other.”

On June 22, Vice President JD Vance said that if Iranian assets are unfrozen, the money will go to buy U.S. corn, wheat, and soybeans. The Iranians denied that they had ever agreed to that idea.

On June 25, in an interview with his friend Sohrab Ahmari in the British website UnHerd, Vance revealed that the U.S. was establishing a “deconfliction cell” to establish direct communications between the U.S. and Iranian militaries. “They were like, ‘OK, fine, we’ll send somebody from the IRGC to go hang out in Doha with somebody from CENTCOM,’ and that’s how we’re going to settle a lot of these disputes.’” (The U.S. government still classifies the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization.)

The following day, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said, “It is announced that this matter is an absolute lie and is strongly denied; this has not happened and will not happen.”

Saturday night, Trump said on Truth Social:

United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn! There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!

Less than two weeks ago, Trump said of Iran’s leaders, “We’re dealing with people that I think are very rational people. I mean, they were nice to deal with. They were strong people, smart people. I think actually they’re smarter than the first and second group, but they’re not radicalized, and they’re, you know, looking to help their country.”

The president just says whatever he has to say to get through the current moment, without any regard for what he said before, or the likely consequences of what he is saying, or what he is likely to say in the future.

As of this morning, Iran and the U.S. have agreed to halt strikes against each other. But who knows how long that is going to last.

Meanwhile, over in Russia . . .

The news is not that Vladimir Putin told a Russian state TV reporter, “Strikes on our infrastructure, wherever they are directed, have absolutely no effect on the situation at the front, on the line of contact.” Nor is it really news, or verifiable, that Putin claims that the Ukrainians proposed “a halt on deep strikes, arguing that Kyiv made the offer because Russian strikes deep into Ukrainian territory are more powerful and devastating.”

No, the news is that Putin had to acknowledge that Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russia’s oil and natural gas infrastructure are occurring because the consequences can no longer be ignored, dismissed, or covered up. As Radio Free Europe reported a week ago, “Russia is facing its worst nationwide fuel shortages in years, with at least 17 regions imposing mandatory restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales, and dozens of others reporting shortages or restrictions by private fuel companies.”

Back in 2014, the late Arizona Senator John McCain described Russia as “a gas station masquerading as a country.” Now it doesn’t even have the gasoline.

By the way, you may have seen the claim circulating on social media this weekend that “the average life expectancy of a new Russian recruit — from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone — lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once sent onto the battlefield, they survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes.”

While I find it plausible that the average life expectancy of a new Russian recruit is very low, my old traveling companion Kyle Orton points out that the sourcing for this statistic is dubious: “The source of the ‘Russian fighters survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes’ meme is a Foreign Policy article, which cited a Telegram post (https://t.me/astrapress/114125) [right] from ASTRA, a Russian opposition outlet, which in turn cited some Russian pro-war military blogs.”

ADDENDA: If you’re headed to Newport Beach, Calif., for the National Review Institute regional seminar on American Leadership & National Security, I will see you there later today!

If you aren’t headed out to Newport Beach, you can still make it to the July 23 NRI regional seminar in Washington, D.C., on constitutional government, featuring speakers such as former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, former U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement, former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Newsmax’s James Rosen, Stand Together’s Casey Mattox, and Ilya Shapiro of the Manhattan Institute.

. . . Speaking of National Review Institute events, the NRI’s Burke to Buckley Fellowship Program is a seven-session masterclass in conservative thought. Each week, you’ll read original sources, share meals, and engage in robust conversation with leading conservative thinkers and National Review writers.

I had the opportunity to host one of these events in Miami, and it was a remarkable collection of smart, deep-thinking, well-read, interesting, and accomplished people.

Applications are now open for the Dallas cohort launching this fall. Apply by August 1 to be considered!