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In my latest Financial Times column, I assert:
In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. But I am more optimistic that the normal democratic process could yet lead to deficit reduction.
Many discount this possibility because the last truly successful effort to reduce the deficit occurred as long ago as 1993, when the political environment was much more amenable to productive compromise. Commentators contrast this success with the failure of the $4tn “grand bargain” deficit-reduction effort in 2011, led by President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner. They argue that the rise of more adversarial and performative politics is to blame.
Why am I optimistic? Check out my column for the full argument. My basic view is pretty well summarized by this graph:
When enough voters feel more pain from deficit increases than from deficit reduction, more politicians — in an effort to win elections — will try to stop the deficit from increasing.
Here’s one green shoot. We learned this week that inflation hit a three-year high in May. Check out Governor DeSantis’s reaction:
