How popular is Donald Trump?

www.natesilver.net
Updated July 16, 2025

After bouncing around in June, Donald Trump’s approval rating is now on a slow and (very) steady decline. Trump’s net approval dropped from -5.9 on July 1st to -7.6 today. That’s about 2 points higher than his second term low of -9.7 (on April 29th) and about 8 points higher than his net approval rating at this point during his first term (-15.5).

Trump’s net approval on immigration (—3.3) and the economy (-11.8) are holding steady, while his ratings on trade (-15.4) and inflation (-24.8) are also down slightly from a few weeks ago. Yesterday, YouGov released a poll asking about Trump’s approval on 52 issues. Here are his best issues (in terms of net approval) according to that survey:

  • National security: +4

  • Border security: +1

  • Transgender issues: ± 0

  • And here are his worst issues:

    One technical note for those interested in these issue results: some of them are not exactly salient. For example, 39 percent of Americans had no opinion on Trump’s handling of cryptocurrency and 37 percent said the same for how he’s dealing with AI. -EMD, 7/15/25

    See also: Elon Musk favorability rating dashboard.

    This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin presidential approval ratings. It will always contain the latest data from our average of presidential approval polls and we’ll regularly update these approval ratings as new polls come in.

    Our polling average is the direct descendant of the presidential approval average that Nate designed for FiveThirtyEight. Click here for more information on how the average works. The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls more heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here. It adjusts for house effects. And it accounts for uncertainty, estimating the range where new polls might come in.

    Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters. If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version. This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is — whether or not they vote.

    Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity — and often underestimated it. So you can see all the numbers here and how house effects work in the model. You can also click here to download every Trump approval poll in our database — including some additional details not shown in the chart below.

    Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers. Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people.

    Pollsters don’t just ask about Trump’s overall job approval, they also ask about how well he’s dealing with different issues. We’re tracking how the public feels about Donald Trump’s handling of some of the most salient topics: the economy, immigration, trade and tariffs, and the cost of living.

    We also have a few features we’re reserving for paying subscribers:

  • How do Trump’s approval ratings compare to every past president since Truman?

  • How many voters strongly approve or disapprove of Trump?

  • What are Trump’s numbers in only polls of adults or only polls of likely and registered voters?

  • You can find all of that, plus downloadable data on every president’s approval rating every day since 1945, down below.